US-Cuba military relations remain a focal point of regional geopolitical tension, particularly amid broader conflicts in Venezuela and the Caribbean. This prediction market examines whether the United States will launch a direct military strike on Cuba by December 31, 2026. Currently, traders are pricing the probability of such action at 41%, reflecting a meaningful but far-from-certain assessment of potential military escalation. The 41% odds indicate that the market views military action as a notable geopolitical risk factor, though military restraint remains viewed as more likely than intervention. The market will resolve based on verified reports of direct US military strikes targeting Cuban territory or military assets. Recent developments in Venezuelan politics, US foreign policy adjustments toward Latin America, and ongoing diplomatic tensions have significantly influenced trading activity and positioning. The prediction market aggregates diverse viewpoints on complex geopolitical variables including military readiness, political will, policy shifts, and regional stability dynamics. With nine months remaining until the December deadline, market prices remain responsive to breaking news, policy announcements, and international developments. Understanding current market odds provides valuable insight into the consensus probability assessment within the trading community regarding this consequential geopolitical scenario.