The US-Iran ceasefire has become a focal point in Middle Eastern diplomacy amid heightened regional tensions and ongoing negotiations. This prediction market resolves based on whether the ceasefire agreement remains in effect through April 21, 2026, as verified by official statements from the US State Department and Iranian government regarding compliance with ceasefire terms, cessation of military operations, and absence of hostile acts. The current YES odds of 89% reflect substantial market confidence that the ceasefire will endure through the deadline. Such elevated odds suggest that traders assess a relatively low probability of renewed conflict or explicit ceasefire breakdown within the near-term timeframe. The market pricing implies traders believe diplomatic conditions remain stable and that neither party has strong incentive to escalate significantly before April 21. Odds momentum has shown incremental strengthening throughout early April, with YES support gradually rising from the mid-80s toward the current 89% level, indicating growing confidence in ceasefire continuation. This live prediction market enables traders to form and express positions on geopolitical outcomes based on publicly available information, official government communications, and their assessments of diplomatic stability and international relations.