US-Iran relations have been strained for decades, with tensions recurring around nuclear negotiations and regional conflicts. A permanent peace deal between the two nations would represent a major shift in Middle East geopolitics. This market is resolvable on April 30, 2026, when traders will assess whether both governments have signed and ratified a formal permanent peace agreement. The current 59% odds reflect meaningful trader optimism about diplomatic possibilities, though major obstacles remain. Historical precedent shows such agreements are complex and rare, requiring sustained political will from both sides. Recent diplomatic signals and potential US administration changes could shift probabilities. The market has fluctuated as reports emerge on negotiations, ceasefire proposals, and political positioning. Resolution requires a formal agreement explicitly labeled permanent by both governments—temporary ceasefires or preliminary talks do not qualify. Success depends on domestic politics in both nations, regional partners' support, and the viability of ongoing diplomatic channels.