The relationship between the United States and Iran has been marked by decades of tension, periodic sanctions, and intermittent diplomatic engagement. This market examines whether a permanent peace deal will be finalized by June 30, 2026. The current YES odds of 76 percent reflect the market's assessment that such an agreement is substantially more likely than not, suggesting traders see meaningful momentum in diplomatic channels or recognizable pathways to settlement. The resolution criteria are straightforward: a binding, publicly announced peace agreement between the US and Iranian governments, with recognition from major international observers. Market odds have fluctuated based on geopolitical news, diplomatic statements, and shifts in political dynamics, continuously repricing expectations. Historically, successful US-Iran agreements require sustained political will from both sides, international mediation, and resolution of core disputes. The deadline of June 30, 2026 provides a defined timeframe for market participants to assess likelihood.