This market explores the possibility of a permanent peace deal between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026. US-Iran relations have been marked by significant tension since 2018, when the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear agreement negotiated in 2015. Recent diplomatic channels have occasionally reopened, though negotiations remain fragile. A lasting peace deal would need to address nuclear program constraints, regional proxy activities, and sanctions relief. The current market price of 71% YES odds indicates participants view a deal as more likely than not within this timeframe, despite substantial obstacles. This odds level reflects moderate confidence in diplomatic breakthrough, recognizing both ongoing diplomatic efforts and the historical difficulty of such negotiations. Price movements will likely track real-world announcements, negotiations progress, and geopolitical developments affecting both nations' incentive structures.