Hormuz shipping sits at 2% market probability of 100 ships/day by July 31, with $14.8K 24h volume. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
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The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, through which roughly one-quarter of global seaborne petroleum passes daily. Under normal conditions, the waterway sees approximately 20–40 commercial transits per day. The market currently prices a 100-ship day by July 31 at just 2%, reflecting extreme skepticism that such a crisis-level surge would occur. That threshold would imply a major disruption—whether a sustained blockade, military conflict, or unprecedented supply-chain emergency—forcing massive rerouting or emergency oil movements. The low odds suggest traders believe international pressures, existing naval presence, and economic incentives to maintain free passage make such extreme congestion virtually impossible in the next 19 days. Any significant geopolitical escalation in the region could rapidly shift sentiment.
The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint for geopolitical tension for decades, particularly amid US-Iran relations, sanctions regimes, and broader Middle East instability. Under normal operations, the waterway accommodates roughly 20–40 transits daily—a figure reflecting both legitimate commerce and redundancy in routing, with oil tankers comprising the bulk of traffic. A 100-ship day would represent more than a doubling of normal traffic, a scenario materializing only under extreme stress: either a temporary but intense supply surge (like emergency reroutes following a supply shock), or sustained disruption creating a vessel queue. Historically, the Strait has experienced bottlenecks during regional conflicts—the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, 2019 tensions following US sanctions, and 2022 tanker seizures produced slowdowns and traffic pulses, but none approached 100-ship days. Achieving such a threshold requires not mere temporary tension, but genuine crisis disrupting maritime law fundamentally. The 2% price reflects several structural factors: international pressure to maintain freedom of navigation; economic incentives against total blockade; US naval presence providing implicit deterrence; and limited time remaining (less than 19 days), reducing escalation windows. For YES to resolve, scenarios like major Iran-external-power military conflict, sustained Iranian blockade backed by military force, or catastrophic regional war would be required—all traders currently price as remote. The 2%-to-98% spread suggests consensus rather than divided opinion. Any sudden escalation—large-scale shipping attacks, blockade declarations, or military engagement—could shift markets sharply; continued diplomatic status quo reinforces low odds. The market prices belief that major-power deterrence, economic logic, and naval presence will prevail through July 31.
Market resolves YES if the Strait of Hormuz records 100 or more ship transits in any single day by July 31, 2026; otherwise NO.
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