The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20–30% of global seaborne oil passes each year. This prediction market asks whether 150 or more commercial vessels will transit the strait during the week of April 20–26, 2026. This threshold represents moderate-to-high traffic levels given historical averages. The strait's strategic importance and its role as a conduit for global energy flows make shipping volume a meaningful indicator of regional stability and commercial activity. At current odds of 28% for YES, the market is pricing in expectations that traffic will fall below 150 vessels during this specific week, potentially reflecting geopolitical friction, port slowdowns, or normal seasonal variation. Historical Hormuz transit data shows significant weekly fluctuations driven by OPEC production decisions, seasonal demand cycles, and broader Persian Gulf conditions. Traders interested in maritime logistics, energy markets, or geopolitical risk can use this prediction market to express directional views on Middle East shipping activity. The market resolves based on official maritime transit records by April 26, 2026.