Global temperature rankings are determined by major meteorological organizations including NASA GISS, NOAA, and the UK Met Office, which compile annual average temperatures from satellite and surface observations. The question of whether 2026 becomes the fourth-hottest year on record hinges on the full-year global temperature anomaly relative to a baseline period. At current 5% odds, traders are pricing the possibility as remote, reflecting expectations that 2026 will likely rank even higher in the historical record—potentially in the top three or even top two—given the clear warming trajectory observed in 2024 and 2025. These recent years have consistently broken previous temperature records, establishing a pronounced upward trend that dominates climate discussions. The market's current pricing implies strong confidence that either 2026 will record even warmer temperatures than recent years, or the global climate baseline will continue shifting upward, pushing 2026's ranking higher in the all-time records. Resolution occurs after December 31, 2026, when annual global temperature data becomes finalized and official rankings are published by recognized meteorological agencies. The outcome depends solely on empirical temperature measurements and does not involve subjective interpretation or modeling adjustments.