Global temperature records over the past century show a clear upward trend, with recent years consistently ranking among the hottest on record. This prediction market tracks whether 2026 will finish as the third-hottest year globally, measured by annual mean temperature anomalies recorded by authoritative climate agencies like NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies or NOAA. The resolution will be determined after the calendar year closes and preliminary annual rankings are published. At current market odds of 4% for YES, traders are pricing in a relatively low probability that 2026 will achieve third-place ranking in global temperature history. This valuation reflects skepticism about whether this particular year will fall into the top three warmest years, suggesting confidence either in cooler conditions ahead or that competing years in the historical record will maintain higher temperature anomalies. Natural climate variability, including patterns like El Niño or La Niña cycles, creates uncertainty around final-year temperature outcomes. The prediction market allows traders to exchange views on how 2026's global temperature will ultimately rank against the full instrumental record of measured temperatures spanning over 140 years of data.