Climate scientists track global mean surface temperature anomalies annually, with recent years showing an extended warming trend. The question of whether 2026 will rank as the sixth-hottest year on record is anchored in well-established historical data maintained by authoritative organizations like NASA's GISS and the UK Met Office, both of which publish definitive annual temperature rankings each January. This makes the market outcome fully resolvable by year-end 2026. At just 3% YES odds, traders are pricing a very low probability that 2026 ranks sixth or cooler, implying strong market confidence that 2026 will rank higher (warmer) than sixth place. This reflects the multi-decade warming trajectory driven by greenhouse gas concentrations. Most years from 2020 onward have ranked in the top ten warmest on record, and 2024 itself is tracking as one of the warmest. The current odds suggest traders expect 2026 to continue this pattern and land in the top five. Understanding this market requires recognizing that recent climate data shows consistent upward temperature trends, so predicting 2026's relative ranking is tied to expectations about whether warming rates continue, accelerate, or temporarily plateau due to natural variability.