Iran has conducted various maritime operations and attacks in recent years, particularly around shipping corridors in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and broader Middle Eastern waters. These incidents reflect ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Western-aligned regional actors across the region. The prediction market question focuses specifically on whether Iran will successfully target 2 to 3 ships by the end of April 2026. Current odds at 11% suggest traders view this outcome as a relatively low-probability event within the specified timeframe, though geopolitical volatility and regional developments could shift market sentiment rapidly. The market will resolve based on confirmed reports from international shipping authorities, maritime news agencies, and official government statements regarding successful Iranian targeting operations. Shipping markets and insurance rates are closely watched by traders and industry analysts seeking to understand regional security risks and their broader economic implications. This prediction market allows participants to express views on Iranian maritime activity and escalating geopolitical risk dynamics without making specific trade recommendations. The resolution criteria focus on documented targeting incidents rather than broader political developments, ensuring objective and verifiable market settlement.