Will Iran target 2-3 ships by April 30? Current odds: 11% YES. Track shipping disruption risk and geopolitical tensions on the prediction market.
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Iran has conducted various maritime operations and attacks in recent years, particularly around shipping corridors in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and broader Middle Eastern waters. These incidents reflect ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Western-aligned regional actors across the region. The prediction market question focuses specifically on whether Iran will successfully target 2 to 3 ships by the end of April 2026. Current odds at 11% suggest traders view this outcome as a relatively low-probability event within the specified timeframe, though geopolitical volatility and regional developments could shift market sentiment rapidly. The market will resolve based on confirmed reports from international shipping authorities, maritime news agencies, and official government statements regarding successful Iranian targeting operations. Shipping markets and insurance rates are closely watched by traders and industry analysts seeking to understand regional security risks and their broader economic implications. This prediction market allows participants to express views on Iranian maritime activity and escalating geopolitical risk dynamics without making specific trade recommendations. The resolution criteria focus on documented targeting incidents rather than broader political developments, ensuring objective and verifiable market settlement.
The market resolves YES if Iran successfully targets 2–3 ships by April 30, 2026, based on confirmed reports from international shipping authorities and official sources. Resolution requires documented targeting incidents verified by credible maritime reporting agencies.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.