60-ship Hormuz day at 1% odds—extreme tail risk requiring major supply shock or sanctions relief. $53K volume, May 31 close. Trade on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, handling approximately 25% of global petroleum shipments daily. Under normal conditions, the strait sees an average of 20-35 transits per day, making a 60-ship day roughly two to three times typical flow—an extreme scenario. The 1% market probability signals traders view this as a tail-risk event, implying either a major supply disruption redirecting traffic through Hormuz, emergency sanctions relief on Iranian exports, or geopolitical crisis triggering front-loaded shipments. No recent surge in Hormuz traffic supports near-term action; the market reflects skepticism about such a dramatic spike occurring by May 31, 2026. Current geopolitical tensions and energy market structure make major flow changes unlikely without a catalyst comparable to previous supply shocks or policy reversals.
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is a 21-mile-wide chokepoint through which roughly one-quarter of the world's seaborne oil passes daily—approximately 20-35 million barrels per day in normal conditions. This makes it the most strategically critical shipping lane on Earth; disruptions here cascade rapidly through global energy prices. A single day with 60 transits would represent an unprecedented surge, roughly 2-3× baseline flow, signaling either historic policy shifts or severe supply crises elsewhere forcing emergency rerouting. Under current geopolitical conditions, several scenarios could theoretically drive a 60-ship day: a dramatic Trump administration pivot on Iran policy (sanctions relief or nuclear concessions unleashing bottled Iranian exports); a major supply shock in alternative export routes (Suez closure, pipeline rupture, major producer offline) forcing Hormuz rerouting; anticipatory front-loading ahead of announced sanctions; or a data anomaly in ship counting. Conversely, the 1% odds reflect strong baseline assumptions—geopolitical stability, restrictive Trump Iran policy, functional alternative routes, and normal market-clearing mechanisms preventing such surges. Historically, even major disruptions have only modestly elevated Hormuz transits; the 2022 Ukraine-Russia crisis and energy shock never produced daily transits approaching 60 ships. The current market pricing suggests broad consensus that a 60-ship day is a black-swan scenario within the May 31 timeframe. With $53K in 24-hour volume and $37K liquidity, the market is liquid enough for position changes, but the extreme odds concentration (1% YES vs. 99% NO) indicates minimal probability assignment. For YES odds to rise materially, markets would need concrete signals of policy reversal, major supply disruption, or geopolitical escalation—catalysts that would be headline-moving across global energy markets well in advance of resolution.
Resolves YES if 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by May 31, 2026; NO otherwise. Resolution based on official vessel traffic data.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.