This market resolves based on the total number of Federal Reserve rate cuts officially announced during 2026, with each 0.25 percentage point reduction counting as one cut. Resolution occurs at year-end 2026, determined solely by official Fed decisions at regularly scheduled FOMC meetings through December 31. Currently trading at 0% YES odds, the market reflects trader conviction that nine cuts in a single calendar year remains extremely unlikely under normal baseline economic scenarios. For context, the Federal Reserve cut rates only 3 times in 2025 as inflation gradually normalized toward its 2% target. Reaching nine cuts would require substantial economic shock—severe recession, systemic financial crisis, deflationary spiral, or similar major disruption—that compels the Fed into aggressive emergency monetary easing. The 0% price implies market participants assign minimal probability to such an extreme scenario materializing. While single-digit or mid-single-digit rate cuts remain plausible during downside economic conditions, achieving nine cuts annually would constitute one of the most aggressive monetary easing cycles in modern Fed history, typically seen only during major financial emergencies. This market effectively functions as a tail-risk probability gauge.