Tensions between Iran and Gulf Cooperation Council states, particularly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have fluctuated with regional political and military developments. This market captures the probability that any Gulf State will execute direct military action against Iran on or before April 15, 2026. Current market pricing at 1% YES reflects strong consensus that such military intervention remains unlikely within the timeframe, despite ongoing diplomatic tensions and occasional military posturing in the region. The relatively high liquidity and trading volume suggest market participants view direct Gulf State military action as low-probability but still tradeable. Recent escalations have occasionally lifted odds above 2%, while diplomatic developments tend to push them lower. The April 15 deadline provides a clear resolution point, allowing traders to position on geopolitical risk during a period of significant Middle Eastern volatility. Resolving this question requires credible reporting of military action initiated by any GCC nation against Iranian targets or territory.