Aaron Judge 2026 MLB: 20% to Lead RBIs — Live Odds

Aaron Judge is baseball's premier power hitter and widely recognized as one of MLB's most dangerous sluggers. In 2024, Judge accumulated 144 RBIs while leading the league in home runs, demonstrating the offensive excellence required for an RBI title. Winning this statistical crown over 162 games presents steep competition — RBI champions typically record 130+ runs batted in with consistent daily production across the season. The 20% market probability acknowledges Judge's elite caliber while recognizing formidable rivals including Aaron Nolan (Houston), Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia), Juan Soto, and other elite sluggers. Judge benefits from Yankee Stadium's hitter-friendly dimensions and the Yankees' strong lineup construction that creates consistent RBI opportunities. The market resolves September 28, 2026, when MLB's regular season concludes and official statistics are finalized. At current odds, traders assign Judge roughly 1-in-5 probability of leading the league versus an otherwise crowded field of elite power hitters.

What factors could move this market?

Aaron Judge has established himself as baseball's most elite power hitter over the past three seasons, combining exceptional slugging ability with disciplined plate approach that maximizes RBI opportunities. His 2024 season produced 144 RBIs while leading MLB in home runs, setting a benchmark for this category's competitive level. However, winning an RBI title over a full season requires more than individual excellence — it demands optimal lineup context where teammates consistently reach base, sustained health through 162 games, and reliable run-production in high-leverage situations. The 2026 RBI race features exceptional depth. Aaron Nolan of Houston finished 2025 with 142 RBIs and continues producing at an elite power level. Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia) has consistently posted 120+ RBI totals in recent seasons. Juan Soto, if maintaining health and productivity, represents another serious threat. Mookie Betts remains a credible contender given his all-around excellence. Judge's primary advantage is his rare combination of raw power (which generates extra-base hits and RBIs) alongside discipline that keeps him in the lineup batting in high-leverage spots. His disadvantage is inherent volatility over a 162-game season — injuries, extended slumps, or Yankees roster changes could disrupt his run-scoring pace. Historically, RBI champions have been generational talents like Miguel Cabrera (2014) or consist of recurring appearances by the same elite sluggers, suggesting the title gravitates toward consistent, durable performers in high-volume power roles. Judge's 20% probability reflects genuine top-tier status while acknowledging a crowded competitive field. Market sentiment has remained stable through May 2026, with no catalyst (major injury, trade deadline move, or dramatic lineup change) substantially shifting odds. The $5,684 liquidity and $2,830 24h volume indicate moderate trader interest — typical for baseball props with several months until resolution. A sustained hot streak in June or July could boost odds; conversely, an injury or extended cold spell would likely push them lower.

What are traders watching for?

• Track Judge's RBI pace through June versus Aaron Nolan and Kyle Schwarber — early season trajectory shapes market sentiment.
• Monitor Yankees roster health and July trade deadline moves affecting lineup support and RBI opportunities.
• Watch injury updates on top competitors (Soto, Nolan, Schwarber, Betts) — absences reshape the competitive landscape.
• Judge's performance with runners in scoring position (RISP) in clutch situations determines his competitive edge against rivals.

How does this market resolve?

The market resolves on September 28, 2026, when MLB's regular season concludes, based on the official player who records the most RBIs across all teams per MLB's official statistics.

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