Ahmed al-Sharaa became Syria's de facto leader following Bashar al-Assad's December 2024 departure, heading a transitional government under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This market tracks whether al-Sharaa will be removed from power before the end of 2026—through internal conflict, military challenge, foreign intervention, regional pressure, or other destabilizing events. The current 0% YES odds reflect market confidence in his political stability, with traders showing minimal expectation of removal within the specified window. Middle Eastern political dynamics remain inherently fluid, with regional tensions, international diplomacy, and domestic consolidation constantly at play. Syria's transition is closely watched by regional and global powers, each with distinct interests in the country's trajectory. The market has recorded $20,294 in 24-hour volume and maintains $16,982 in liquidity, indicating sustained trader interest in Syria's political future. Early trading shows no meaningful movement toward YES odds despite well-documented volatility in Middle Eastern politics. Observers focus on al-Sharaa's consolidation of power, management of competing constituencies, relationships with key regional actors, and external pressures that could threaten his position.