Anthropic, the AI research lab founded in 2021, has raised substantial venture funding to develop Claude and other advanced language models, but remains private. This market tracks whether the company will IPO by June 30, 2026. The 96% YES odds reflect trader conviction that Anthropic will not go public within this timeframe, consistent with typical venture-backed AI company development cycles and the company's apparent focus on R&D over near-term public markets. The market is inherently resolvable: an Anthropic IPO would require SEC filing, shareholder registration, and regulatory approval—all public events. Current pricing reflects the complexity of timing an AI company IPO amid market volatility and the 18-month window to resolution. Odds have remained stable in the 95%+ range for several weeks, showing strong consensus. Factors that could shift the probability include strategic partnerships, acquisition offers, or accelerated profitability targets, but traders currently assign only 4% probability to a public listing by June 2026. The timeframe excludes other potential exits like acquisition.