Anthropic IPO sits at 0% market-implied probability below $100B, with $2.2K 24h volume and resolution June 30. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
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Anthropic, founded in 2021 by former OpenAI executives, has become one of the most well-capitalized AI safety research companies. Recent funding rounds valued the company at over $15 billion, making a sub-$100 billion IPO valuation highly unlikely by current market assessments. The 0% YES odds reflect trader consensus that Anthropic will either launch at a valuation meeting or exceeding $100 billion, or not IPO by June 30. Given the company's strong funding trajectory, technological achievements with Claude, and elevated valuations across the AI sector, the market prices near-zero probability of a sub-$100 billion opening. Recent comparable IPOs in AI and software have established benchmarks well above this threshold. The market's extreme consensus suggests either high confidence in Anthropic's valuation power, or uncertainty about whether an IPO actually occurs by the June 30 resolution deadline.
Anthropic has raised over $15 billion in private funding across multiple rounds, with recent valuations in the high single-digit to mid-teen billions range. The company was founded in 2021 by Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, and other former OpenAI executives, positioning itself at the forefront of AI safety research and large language model development. Claude, Anthropic's flagship AI model, has gained significant market adoption and critical acclaim, competing directly with OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini. A sub-$100 billion IPO valuation would require either a significant operational setback or a dramatic shift in AI sector sentiment. Industry comparables provide crucial context: OpenAI's last private valuation reached approximately $80 billion in late 2023, and Anthropic's IPO could reasonably exceed that precedent given its strong revenue trajectory and recent capital raises. Other mega-cap tech IPOs and late-stage AI funding rounds have commanded significantly higher valuations. Factors supporting a ≥$100B opening include Anthropic's clear AI model leadership, substantial enterprise client adoption, runway from recent funding to reach profitability, and sustained investor appetite for AI infrastructure plays. Conversely, a sub-$100B outcome could theoretically occur if macro conditions deteriorate sharply, if regulatory scrutiny on AI accelerates unexpectedly, or if technical or safety concerns emerge that damage investor confidence. The 0% odds suggest traders believe such outcomes are vanishingly unlikely, indicating high conviction in Anthropic's valuation power at IPO. The low trading volume and modest liquidity indicate limited speculative interest at these extreme odds, as few traders see value betting against current consensus. This also reflects that many market participants may be waiting for the actual IPO before committing capital to positions.
Market resolves YES if Anthropic's market capitalization falls below $100 billion at closing bell on the company's IPO day; resolves NO if the IPO occurs at or above $100B, or if no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026.
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