The 2026 PGA Championship is one of professional golf's four major tournaments, held in May with this market closing May 18, 2026, when the winner is crowned. This market asks whether Ben Griffin will emerge victorious from an elite field of competitors. The current 0% YES odds indicate traders assess Griffin as an extremely unlikely victor—likely reflecting his competitive positioning in the field, recent tournament form, world ranking, or the inherent difficulty of winning a major against the world's best golfers. With dozens of top-ranked players competing, individual win probabilities are naturally low. The market's pricing effectively removes Griffin from traders' contention scenarios, reflecting collective assessment that other competitors hold substantially stronger positions.
What factors could move this market?
Ben Griffin is a professional golfer competing in the global professional golf circuit. The 2026 PGA Championship represents one of golf's four major tournaments, commanding enormous prestige and attracting the world's elite players. Winning a major championship defines a golfer's career legacy and marks one of sport's highest individual achievements. To win, Griffin must execute optimally across four rounds while managing course conditions, competitive pressure, and opposition from dozens of world-class competitors. The field typically includes top-ranked players, recent tournament winners, and golfers with strong major championship records, making individual victory probabilities inherently low in tournaments of this caliber. The PGA of America administers selection and qualification criteria based on ranking, performance, and professional standing. The current 0% odds reflect maximal trader skepticism. This pricing likely stems from Griffin's recent tournament results not suggesting major championship form, his historical major performance record, world ranking position, or the exceptional depth and quality of the field. Major championships are notoriously difficult to win—fields of 100+ elite golfers mean extremely low individual win probabilities by definition. A 0% price point indicates traders assign such minimal probability that they've effectively removed him from contention scenarios. Factors that could shift the market toward YES would include unexpectedly strong tournament rounds, recent hot form, or course conditions favoring his playing style. Conversely, factors supporting NO include weaker major championship history, recent tournament finishes outside contention, ranking relative to favorites, or course characteristics disadvantaging his approach. Historical precedent shows that golfers with 0% or near-0% market odds rarely win majors—when they do, it represents a significant upset reshuffling market expectations. The 0% pricing demonstrates maximum trader conviction that alternative candidates will prevail.
What are traders watching for?
PGA Championship concludes May 18, 2026; Griffin must finish ahead of entire field of elite competitors for YES resolution.
Current world ranking and recent tournament performance indicate Griffin's competitive positioning relative to major championship contenders.
Course conditions and layout characteristics will significantly influence whether Griffin's playing style can compete at elite level.
Any injury, withdrawal, or eligibility issue before May 18 would eliminate Griffin and resolve the market toward NO.
Field depth and quality of competitors directly impact individual player win probability at major championships.
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves YES if Ben Griffin is declared the winner of the 2026 PGA Championship by May 18, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
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