Benny Gantz, the former IDF Chief of Staff and leader of the Blue and White party, is currently being traded in prediction markets at just 1% odds to become Israel's next Prime Minister by year-end 2026. The extremely low odds reflect the current political reality, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains strong coalition control and faces no imminent threat to his government's stability. At this price point, traders are assigning nearly negligible probability to a leadership transition within the next eight months. The odds trajectory suggests incremental movement only if major political disruptions occur—such as coalition collapse, corruption convictions advancing, or unexpected electoral developments that fundamentally alter Israel's parliamentary dynamics.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Benny Gantz emerged as a significant political force following the 2019 elections, when his Blue and White party competed directly with Netanyahu's Likud. Despite strong initial support, Gantz eventually joined Netanyahu's coalition government, serving as Defence Minister before tensions led to his exit from the cabinet. His political base has fragmented since then, with his party losing parliamentary seats and influence over successive election cycles. The Israeli political system requires a Prime Minister to maintain the confidence of at least 61 Knesset members out of 120, meaning any transition would require either a current coalition to fracture catastrophically or a new election that fundamentally reshapes parliamentary math. Netanyahu's coalition currently commands a stable majority, and while internal tensions exist, they have not reached the breaking point that would force a change of leadership before 2026. For Gantz to become Prime Minister, multiple simultaneous conditions would need to align: Netanyahu would need to face either criminal conviction or complete coalition collapse, no other coalition member would claim the leadership role first, and Gantz's party would need to either rebuild significantly or position itself as the natural bridge to a successor coalition. Recent polling suggests Gantz's party has declined to approximately 6-8 Knesset seats, a stark drop from its 33-seat peak, indicating diminished political strength. The current 1% market price suggests traders view these scenarios as highly unlikely within the 2026 timeframe, though geopolitical shocks, legal developments, or unexpected security crises could rapidly shift political calculations in Israeli politics.
