Dinorah Figuera, a prominent Venezuelan opposition figure, faces virtually zero probability of becoming Venezuela's leader by December 31, 2026, according to the current prediction market trading at 0% YES odds. The question's fixed December 31 deadline makes it directly resolvable: whoever exercises executive authority over Venezuela at year-end 2026 will determine the outcome. The 0% pricing reflects trader consensus that Figuera's path to leadership is blocked by multiple structural barriers. Nicolás Maduro has consolidated control of Venezuela's military and state apparatus despite widespread international non-recognition and domestic opposition. While the broader opposition coalition recognizes Juan Guaidó and more recently Edmundo González as alternative leaders, Figuera's specific role within opposition structures and lack of comparable institutional backing make her ascension in the next 20 months improbable in the eyes of market participants. The market's extreme confidence in a NO resolution (reflected in near-zero YES odds) suggests traders believe Venezuela's political structure will remain fundamentally unchanged: either Maduro continues to hold power, or another opposition figure with stronger institutional connections—not Figuera—would claim leadership in any transition scenario.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Dinorah Figuera operates within Venezuela's fractured and decentralized opposition movement, where no single leader has achieved the institutional consolidation necessary to mount a credible challenge to Maduro's regime. Venezuela's political structure since 2013 has been defined by the gradual concentration of power within Maduro's executive apparatus and his control over state institutions, the military hierarchy, and security forces. While the opposition has produced various figures recognized by Western governments—initially Juan Guaidó as the self-declared interim president, later Edmundo González as the unified opposition candidate following the July 2024 elections—Figuera has maintained a more diffuse, grassroots profile within opposition networks rather than commanding a centralized power structure. For Figuera to become Venezuela's leader by year-end 2026 would require either a dramatic military rupture within the regime (displacing current military command loyal to Maduro), a successful popular uprising that somehow consolidates behind her specifically, or external intervention that selects her as a preferred successor—scenarios market participants assign minimal probability. The structural barriers to Figuera's ascension are reinforced by recent Venezuelan political history. After July 2024's contested elections, the opposition's fractured response and the failure to translate electoral claims into institutional power demonstrated the difficulty of displacing Maduro through conventional means. Military commanders, particularly those controlling key security forces, remain the real gatekeepers of Venezuela's political future, and none have publicly signaled willingness to back Figuera's leadership. The market's 0% odds also reflect an implicit forecast that if any transition occurs in the next eight months, a figure with stronger regional power bases or international recognition—such as González or another opposition heavyweight—would be more plausible. Recent developments in late 2024 and early 2025 showed Edmundo González attempting to mobilize opposition from exile while Maduro consolidated his disputed claim to re-election. Figuera's profile in these dynamics has remained secondary. The trading volume for this market ($4,235 in 24 hours) is relatively modest compared to other Venezuelan political markets, which itself may indicate low conviction about Figuera's relevance as a leadership candidate. For the market to reprice dramatically toward YES would require major catalysts: unexpected military defections publicly backing Figuera, a sudden collapse of Maduro's security apparatus, or evidence that major opposition factions had coalesced behind her leadership. None of these appear imminent based on current reporting. The 0% pricing reflects extreme conviction that Venezuela's leadership structure will remain under Maduro's control or potentially transfer to another opposition figure with deeper institutional roots through some negotiated or contested process, leaving no plausible pathway for Figuera's elevation.
What traders watch for
Military leadership stability: any shift in Maduro's command structures or defections could reshape Venezuelan succession dynamics
Opposition consolidation: whether behind Edmundo González or another faction leader; Figuera's role in unified movements
US policy shifts: Trump administration stance on Venezuela intervention, sanctions, or support for opposition figures
December 31, 2026 regime control: whoever exercises executive authority in Venezuela at year-end resolves the market
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves YES if Dinorah Figuera holds the position of Venezuela's executive leader (de facto or de jure) on December 31, 2026. Resolution is based on factual control of Venezuela's executive authority at the end-of-year date.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
