Dinorah Figuera Venezuela 2026: 0% Probability — Live Odds

Dinorah Figuera holds zero market probability of leading Venezuela on December 31, 2026, reflecting trader consensus that she will not be in power at year-end. The Venezuelan political landscape remains dominated by incumbent Nicolás Maduro and opposition figures like Edmundo González Urrutia and Machado, whose political visibility far exceeds Figuera's profile. The market pricing reflects both Maduro's entrenched institutional control and the Trump administration's diplomatic posture toward Venezuelan regime change. A leader must be recognized as Venezuela's head of state by international consensus to resolve YES—a threshold Figuera has not approached in recent geopolitical discourse. The 0% valuation suggests traders view her as an implausibly marginal figure in Venezuela's power competition, with all viable outcomes clustering around existing power players or internationally-brokered transitions. Current volume of $5K daily indicates low trader interest, consistent with consensus-level certainty.

What factors could move this market?

Dinorah Figuera's zero percent market probability reflects Venezuela's complex and contested political landscape, where state control remains fiercely contested between incumbent Nicolás Maduro, opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, María Corina Machado, and smaller factions. For Figuera to lead Venezuela on December 31, 2026, she would need to displace all current power contenders through election, negotiated transition, international intervention, or coup—an outcome the market prices at effectively zero probability. This valuation suggests Figuera possesses neither the organizational machinery, international backing, nor domestic constituency to seize executive authority within the timeframe. The YES outcome would require extraordinary political upheaval: opposition parties coalescing behind her, the Trump administration's active diplomatic support, significant fracture within Maduro's security apparatus, and broad international recognition of a non-Maduro, non-Machado, non-González successor. None of these conditions currently exist or appear likely. The Venezuelan opposition has historically bifurcated: the Machado-led hardline faction demanding Maduro's immediate removal, and the González-affiliated moderate faction pursuing negotiated transition. Figuera commands significant following within neither camp, nor has she emerged as a compromise consensus candidate. Maduro's regime, despite economic collapse and humanitarian crisis, retains coercive control through the military, security services, and electoral machinery—a structural advantage that would need to collapse entirely for a peripheral figure like Figuera to ascend. The Trump administration has historically favored backing Machado or González; Figuera has no apparent connection to U.S. policy objectives. Recent geopolitical moves by Maduro's government—constitutional amendments, electoral manipulations, imprisonment of opposition figures—suggest regime consolidation rather than fragmentation. The post-2023 Venezuelan political arena has narrowed to recognized contestants, not expanded to include marginal figures. The market's 0% pricing reflects that Figuera occupies no viable institutional position from which to mount a plausible challenge.

What are traders watching for?

• December 31, 2026 resolution date; international recognition of Figuera as Venezuela's head of state on this date triggers YES.
• Maduro resignation, death, or forced removal; Figuera would require coalition support and international backing to assume leadership.
• Machado arrest or withdrawal from politics; Figuera gains viability only if all major opposition figures are simultaneously eliminated.
• Trump administration direct support for Figuera as successor; currently absent and unlikely to materialize before year-end.

How does this market resolve?

Market resolves YES if Dinorah Figuera is recognized internationally as the leader (head of state) of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if any other figure or entity controls executive authority at that date.