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This market resolves whether Donald Trump posts between 60 and 79 Truth Social messages during the week of May 19–26, 2026. The current 0% YES odds indicate traders believe the actual post count will fall outside this relatively narrow 20-post band, expecting either significantly fewer than 60 posts or substantially more than 79. Trump's Truth Social posting volume has historically varied with news cycles, travel schedules, and engagement patterns. Periods with fewer posts typically align with travel or periods when he's less inclined to comment on current events, while surges beyond 79 posts often follow major news developments that prompt rapid-fire commentary or reaction posts. The extreme market pricing reflects underlying uncertainty about whether Trump's posting will land in this specific mid-range rather than at the tails. With $16.9K in 24-hour volume, the market shows moderate liquidity as traders position on the distribution boundaries. The narrow timeframe—just one week—and specific post-count threshold make this a high-resolution measure of Trump's engagement patterns.
What factors could move this market?
Trump's Truth Social posting frequency has remained one of the more unpredictable elements of the political media landscape. The 60-79 post range represents a mid-frequency zone—more than a handful per day if evenly distributed, but still below the kind of high-volume periods when Trump has engaged in extended comment threads or rapid-response posts to news developments. Historical patterns suggest that Trump's posting on Truth Social correlates strongly with news cycles affecting him personally or his political interests. During weeks with major political developments, court proceedings, or significant media coverage related to his positions, posting frequency has tended to spike well above 80 posts. Conversely, weeks with limited news focus directly on Trump or his statements, or when he has been traveling or in situations limiting platform access, have produced post counts well below 60.
The 0% odds currently assigned to this 60-79 window suggest that traders have significant conviction in one direction or the other. This could reflect expectations about specific events scheduled during May 19-26—political developments, legal proceedings, or scheduled travel that would push posting patterns to one extreme. Alternatively, the pricing might reflect longer-term behavioral analysis suggesting Trump's typical posting distribution has shifted away from the mid-range frequencies entirely.
What would push the market toward YES (the 60-79 band)? A relatively quiet news week with moderate but not exceptional political developments would be required. Trump would need to post at a steady but not frenetic pace—enough to stay engaged but not so much as to dominate the platform. This scenario becomes less likely if major events (political news, court dates, or significant media developments) are scheduled during the week.
What would push the market toward NO (fewer than 60 or more than 79)? Major news events driving rapid-response posting behavior, or conversely, periods of reduced engagement due to travel, meetings, or strategic communication choices. The extreme 0% odds suggest traders see one of these outcomes as far more probable. The narrow post-count band—only 20 posts separating the YES threshold—makes this a high-resolution bet on actual engagement patterns rather than a broad directional call.
What are traders watching for?
Market closes May 26, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on actual Truth Social post count May 19-26.
Major political developments or court proceedings during the week could drive posting toward extremes beyond 60–79.
Trump's travel schedule and media availability during May 19–26 will directly influence posting frequency.
Early-week posting patterns (May 19–21) may signal whether post count will fall within or outside the target range.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Donald Trump posts between 60 and 79 Truth Social posts (inclusive) from May 19 to May 26, 2026 (00:00–23:59 UTC on both dates). Resolution occurs May 26, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on official Truth Social post count.
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