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Elon Musk's Twitter activity has become an increasingly trackable metric, with specialized markets quantifying his posting behavior over specific windows. This market focuses on a narrow band: 115-139 tweets over a 3-day period (May 23-25, 2026), which equates to roughly 38-46 tweets per day on average. Historically, Musk has demonstrated variable posting habits—sometimes dormant for days, other times posting intensively. The current 2% odds reflect trader skepticism that Musk will hit this specific high-volume threshold. With only days remaining until resolution, the market has crystallized around the view that such sustained posting intensity is unlikely. The $42,294 in 24-hour volume indicates moderate interest in a niche but well-defined outcome. Traders are essentially pricing this as a low-probability event, suggesting either Musk's recent posting cadence has been moderate or the 115-139 range is simply too optimistic given his typical behavior.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's Twitter presence has evolved from personal commentary to something resembling a financial instrument—his posts often move markets, shift investor sentiment, or announce major Tesla and SpaceX developments. Specialized prediction markets have emerged to quantify this activity, treating his posting frequency as a measurable, resolvable outcome. The 115-139 tweet threshold represents a notably high posting volume. To understand the scale, 38-46 tweets per day requires not just active engagement but sustained focus on the platform for multiple hours daily, covering diverse topics from business updates to personal observations. Historically, Musk's posting patterns have been erratic. He has periods of intense activity—sometimes posting dozens of tweets daily when reacting to news, company announcements, or public debates—but also longer windows of relative dormancy. The 2% market probability suggests traders have observed his recent behavior and concluded that sustaining such volume over a 3-day window is extremely unlikely. This could reflect a period where his posting has been moderate, or it could indicate that the 115-139 band is simply too high regardless of his current cadence. Market participants often anchor on baseline frequency; if Musk has been averaging 10-20 tweets per day, reaching 38-46 daily would require a dramatic behavioral shift. The low odds also factor in opportunity cost—during peak business periods at Tesla or SpaceX, personal Twitter activity often declines. Catalysts that could push toward YES include a major company announcement requiring real-time commentary, a public dispute or debate drawing his engagement, or a personal decision to engage heavily on policy or industry topics. Factors pushing toward NO remain more numerous: competing demands on his time, the Twitter algorithm favoring quality over quantity, and the inherent variance in his posting habits making such a specific band unlikely to hit by chance alone. The $42K in 24-hour volume, while notable for a niche market, suggests this is a specialized bet rather than a mainstream prediction market. The market will resolve within 24-48 hours, making real-time monitoring the only way to track whether Musk's May 23-25 output approaches the threshold.
What are traders watching for?
Real-time tweet count via Twitter API determines exact resolution; market closes May 25 midnight UTC.
Major Tesla or SpaceX announcements May 23-25 could trigger sustained engagement and higher posting volume.
Elon's recent daily tweet baseline (early May) is critical: if averaging 10-20 daily, 38-46 daily is unlikely.
Market resolves binary on May 25: final count ≥115 and ≤139 tweets counts as YES; all other counts resolve NO.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves May 25 at midnight UTC based on final tweet count via Twitter API. YES if Elon posts 115-139 tweets total May 23-25; NO otherwise.
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