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Elon Musk's tweeting behavior has been one of the most tracked public datasets in social media history, fluctuating wildly based on business priorities, market sentiment, and personal engagement cycles. To understand the 165-189 tweet threshold over a mere three days, context is essential. That range translates to roughly 55-63 tweets per day—a prolific pace even by Elon's standards. While he has demonstrated capacity for intense tweeting bursts, sustaining such output consistently is uncommon. His tweet volume typically correlates with major catalysts: Tesla earnings announcements, SpaceX launches, Dogecoin rallies, geopolitical commentary, or high-profile public disputes. Over an arbitrary three-day window (May 23-25, 2026), absent a specific external trigger, such sustained volume remains statistically unlikely. The 0% YES odds indicate traders have near-total consensus that this high threshold is implausible. The $30K+ in 24h volume shows moderate interest despite the extreme pricing, suggesting the market reflects genuine analytical conviction rather than simple indifference. The market is hard-closed at May 25 UTC midnight, making resolution objective via @elonmusk verified account data.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's tweeting behavior reflects deeply variable engagement patterns tied to business cycles, market sentiment, and external events. The 165-189 tweet threshold over a three-day window represents roughly 55-63 tweets per day—historically achievable only during crises or controversies. The YES case (currently at 0% odds) would require convergence of catalysts: a major Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI development forcing rapid public communication; viral controversy driving engagement surge; or a deliberate posting experiment. Historical precedent exists—his May 2021 Bitcoin commentary phase exceeded 80+ daily tweets, and his 2020 SpaceX Starship launch day hit 120+. However, these were event-specific surges clustering around concrete catalysts. As of May 24, 2026, no announced Tesla earnings, SpaceX launch, or cryptocurrency rally is scheduled for the May 23-25 window, significantly dampening baseline expectations. The NO case (priced at virtual certainty) rests on robust evidence: his genuine long-term tweeting median sits well below 40 tweets/day when measured across rolling quarters; since acquiring Twitter/X, he has reportedly become more selective and focused on platform moderation policy rather than personal commentary; the May 23-25 timeframe is arbitrary with zero scheduled business triggers; and his stated strategic priorities center on xAI development and Tesla Full Self-Driving advancement, not social media engagement. The $30K 24h volume—moderate for such a specific outcome—combined with 0% pricing suggests traders recognize genuine consensus rather than thin liquidity. This reflects a 'no bid' dynamic where believers in the YES case simply aren't willing to size positions, leaving extreme pricing as a floor. Historical prediction markets on celebrity social media thresholds consistently price high numeric targets as black-swan outcomes, and Elon's recent behavioral trajectory reinforces this market's analytical foundation.
What are traders watching for?
May 25 11:59 PM UTC resolution: tweet count from @elonmusk verified account only; deletions and retweets handled per market specification.
SpaceX or Tesla major announcement May 23-25: the only plausible YES catalyst; no event scheduled suggests baseline remains extremely low.
Cryptocurrency market activity: Bitcoin/Dogecoin rallies historically spike Elon's posting frequency; dormant crypto conditions support NO consensus.
Prior week baseline matters: if Elon's May 16-22 average was 20-30 tweets/day, jumping to 55+ requires external shock or deliberate experiment.
How does this market resolve?
Resolves May 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC based on total verified tweets from @elonmusk posted May 23-25. YES if count is 165-189 tweets, NO otherwise.
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