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Elon Musk is one of the most prolific posters on X (formerly Twitter), frequently using the platform to share business updates, market commentary, and personal thoughts. This market tracks a very specific prediction: whether he will post between 320 and 339 tweets during the week of May 22 to May 29, 2026. The market's 7% odds suggest that traders view this outcome as highly unlikely, implying Musk's expected tweet volume for that week falls well outside this range—either significantly higher or lower than 320-339 posts. To contextualize, a weekly average of 320-339 tweets translates to roughly 45-48 tweets per day, which would represent either a notable surge or atypical silence compared to his typical posting patterns. The market is binary and resolvable: on May 29, the actual tweet count from May 22–May 29 can be verified through X's public API or archive data. At 7% odds, the market is pricing this outcome as a low-probability event, suggesting traders expect Musk's posting behavior during this week to deviate significantly from this specific range.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's X posting behavior has become a subject of public interest and speculation, particularly given his influence over markets and public discourse through the platform. His tweet volume is notoriously inconsistent—he can post dozens of tweets in a single day, then go silent for hours or days. The specific range of 320-339 tweets over a seven-day period (approximately 45-48 per day on average) is unusually precise, which is typical of prediction markets that seek to capture microeconomic probabilities rather than broader outcomes. Factors that could push the market toward YES (higher probability of hitting this range) include: a major news cycle or controversy requiring Musk to respond frequently, a burst of enthusiasm for a new X feature he's promoting, or sustained engagement with platform developments or company announcements. If Tesla or SpaceX faces significant announcements or product launches during May 22-29, this could drive higher posting frequency as Musk typically becomes more active during major company milestones. Conversely, factors pushing toward NO include: a scheduled business trip or absence, reduced engagement due to external focus (such as critical SpaceX launches requiring his engineering and leadership attention), or simply a natural quiet period in his engagement cycle. Musk's posting patterns have shown pronounced seasonal and event-driven variations, and traders may be betting that May 22-29 falls within a lower-activity window given other commitments. The 7% odds reflect asymmetric conviction among traders: it's not simply that the outcome is 'unlikely,' but that the market is pricing in strong confidence that this specific range is genuinely rare for Musk. Historical analysis of Musk's weekly tweet volumes might show that posting 45-48 tweets per day consistently is outside his normal statistical distribution, making the market's assessment grounded in empirical behavior. What the spread implies: traders believe Musk's true expected tweet volume for May 22-29 lies either well below (perhaps 200-300 tweets, or 28-43 per day) or well above (perhaps 400+ tweets, or 57+ per day) this target range. The 7% price expresses strong conviction that 320-339 is a genuine outlier scenario, not merely an unlikely one. This is typical of precise-range markets where historical volatility of the underlying metric makes narrow bands statistically uncommon. Liquidity at $31K suggests reasonable confidence in the market's pricing, though not heavy betting interest in this specific outcome, indicating traders are comfortable with the current odds. The market's resolution on May 29, 2026 is the hard cutoff, ensuring a clean, verifiable settlement via X's public API or archive data.
What are traders watching for?
May 22-29 observation window closes May 29; final count verified via X API or archive data.
Major Tesla or SpaceX announcements during the week could drive significantly higher posting volume.
Historical data suggests this 45-48-tweets-per-day range falls outside Musk's typical weekly distribution.
Current 7% odds reflect trader confidence that this narrow band is a rare outcome for Musk.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts between 320-339 tweets (inclusive) from May 22, 2026 00:00 UTC to May 29, 2026 00:00 UTC. Final count is verified through X's public API or official archive data.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
