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This prediction market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 340 and 359 tweets during the seven-day period from May 19 to May 26, 2026. With current YES odds at just 5%, traders are overwhelmingly skeptical he'll hit this specific volume range, suggesting they expect either significantly higher or substantially lower posting activity during that week. The market reflects the inherent unpredictability of Elon's social media behavior, which fluctuates dramatically based on news cycles, major product announcements, business crises, and personal reactions to market developments or geopolitical events. At $60K in 24-hour volume, this is a relatively active micro-market on a hyper-specific behavioral metric. The low odds indicate strong consensus that 340-359 tweets in seven days—roughly 49-51 tweets per day—represents an unlikely outcome. Resolution occurs on May 26 based on official Twitter/X API counts.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's relationship with Twitter—which he acquired in late 2022 and rebranded as X—remains one of the most closely watched social media presences in technology, finance, and politics. His posting patterns are notoriously erratic and unpredictable, ranging from extended periods of relative silence (5-15 tweets per day) to explosive bursts of activity during market crises, regulatory scrutiny, major product announcements, or personal disputes (100+ tweets in a single day or across multiple peak days). The specific prediction of 340-359 tweets over seven days translates to a sustained average of roughly 49-51 tweets per day, representing moderately high engagement but not the extreme spikes frequently observed during acute crises.
For this market to resolve YES, Elon would need to maintain near-constant engagement throughout the May 19-26 measurement window—a level of posting intensity typically reserved for acute business pressure, shareholder crises, regulatory flashpoints, or significant geopolitical volatility affecting his companies. Historically, his tweet frequency spikes during Tesla quarterly earnings, SpaceX launch windows, SEC investigations, cryptocurrency market turbulence (especially Bitcoin volatility), or crises in his other ventures like Neuralink. Extended quiet periods often follow major announcements when immediate reactions subside, or when he delegates communications to other executives.
The current 5% market odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus that this volume band is unlikely during this specific week. Participants expect either significantly more posts (if major catalysts erupt—SEC filings, geopolitical flashpoints, or X emergencies) or substantially fewer posts (if May 19-26 remains quiet across his business interests). The 340-359 range sits uncomfortably in the middle: too precise and sustained to be likely given his historical volatility, yet not extreme enough to dismiss outright. Traders shorting this market are essentially betting that week-to-week behavior will push activity either well above or well below this mid-range band.
What are traders watching for?
May 19: Measurement window opens; any Tesla earnings, SpaceX launch, or X crisis could trigger posting surge.
May 20-25: Watch for SEC filings, regulatory announcements, or geopolitical developments triggering rapid response.
May 26: Window closes at 00:00 UTC; final Twitter/X API count determines YES/NO resolution.
Historical baseline: Elon's quiet weeks average 15-25 tweets/day; active crisis weeks reach 60-100+.
X platform controversies or product launches during the period could significantly affect engagement level.
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's total tweet count from May 19–26, 2026 (00:00–23:59 UTC) falls between 340 and 359 inclusive, verified by Twitter/X API. Resolves NO if the count falls outside this range.
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