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This market tracks whether Elon Musk will publish between 380-399 posts on the X platform (formerly Twitter) during an 8-day window from May 15 to May 22, 2026. That target requires roughly 47–50 tweets per day on average, a sustained pace well above his typical daily output across most weeks. Musk is widely known as a prolific poster, yet even at his most active periods, he rarely maintains a consistent 50-per-day rhythm across an entire week without interruption. The current 0% odds reflect strong trader conviction that this specific volume bracket is improbable. Historical data shows his posting patterns fluctuate sharply depending on external events—major business crises, product launches, or geopolitical developments all influence his engagement level. The narrow 20-tweet range (380-399) makes this a precision market where daily consistency and absence of competing distractions matter significantly. Reaching this threshold would require an exceptionally focused week with minimal breaks.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's X platform posting activity has become a subject of intense speculation since he acquired Twitter in 2022 and rebranded it as X. His tweet volume varies dramatically week-to-week based on external events, business developments, and personal focus areas. During periods of major news—Tesla earnings calls, product launches, or geopolitical crises—Musk has posted frequently, sometimes reaching 30–40 tweets per day. However, sustained rates of 47–50 tweets daily are exceptionally rare and typically emerge only during intense crisis periods demanding rapid, continuous communication. The specific bracket of 380–399 tweets over eight days represents an unusually high bar, which explains the 0% pricing from traders. To reach this target, Musk would need to maintain near-peak posting frequency for the entire week without travel, competing business demands, or operational distractions. Several factors could theoretically push the market toward YES: a major Tesla safety issue requiring urgent updates, a critical X platform outage demanding continuous commentary, or a significant geopolitical event prompting strong public responses. More likely outcomes pushing toward NO include Musk's focus on SpaceX operations (Starship testing often consumes his attention), international business travel to Tesla gigafactories, planned vacations, or the natural rhythm of his engagement patterns shifting to lower priorities. Historical analogs from late 2022—the chaotic period immediately following his Twitter acquisition when Musk posted frequently about platform changes—suggest even during his most active episodes, sustaining a 50-per-day average consistently across eight days is nearly unprecedented. The market's 0% pricing reflects rational skepticism about whether a single week could produce such a dramatic spike above his baseline behavior.
What are traders watching for?
Tesla earnings announcement, product launch, or major business event during May 15-22
SpaceX Starship test, satellite launch, or other space-related activities competing for Musk's time
X platform outage, security breach, or policy controversy requiring rapid executive response
Elon's international travel schedule, conference appearances, or planned personal time that week
Viral moment, competitive social media activity, or external controversy drawing sustained commentary
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the total tweet count posted to Elon Musk's @elonmusk X account from 00:00 UTC May 15, 2026 through 23:59 UTC May 22, 2026. YES wins if the count falls between 380–399 (inclusive); NO wins if the count is ≤379 or ≥400.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
