This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 400 and 419 tweets during an 8-day window from May 12 to May 19, 2026. The current 0% YES odds indicate traders believe this posting volume is highly unlikely. To understand the probability, consider Musk's typical daily tweet output: he commonly posts between 20 and 100 tweets per day, depending on news cycles and his focus. To hit 400-419 tweets over 8 days would require an average of 50-52 tweets daily, which falls within his documented range but on the upper end. The market resolves on May 19 by counting his actual tweets across X during the specified period. The 0% pricing suggests traders expect either significantly lower activity (below 400) or significantly higher activity (above 419), but not the narrow 20-tweet band. This extreme odds assignment reflects high conviction that Musk's posting behavior will deviate from this specific target range during this particular week.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's relationship with X (formerly Twitter) has been one of the most documented social media behaviors in recent years. Since taking ownership in October 2022, Musk has used the platform as his primary communication channel for Tesla announcements, SpaceX updates, cryptocurrency commentary, and personal reactions to breaking news. His posting frequency has fluctuated widely based on external events—major news cycles, product launches, and controversies trigger spikes in activity, while quieter operational periods see significant drops. Historical analysis shows Musk typically tweets 20-80 times daily, though extraordinary circumstances (major incidents, product reveals, or intense news coverage) have occasionally pushed him above 100 daily tweets. The May 12-19 window targets 400-419 tweets, requiring an average of 50-52 posts per day—above his historical average but not impossible.
Several factors could drive higher activity during this period. A major Tesla earnings announcement, SpaceX launch activity, significant X platform updates, or public controversies would typically elevate his posting rate substantially. Cryptocurrency market volatility or regulatory developments affecting his companies could also trigger posting bursts. Conversely, factors pushing toward lower activity include scheduled business focus on operational matters at Tesla or SpaceX, personal commitments, or deliberate social media reduction. The current 0% YES odds suggest traders have extreme conviction that Musk's behavior will fall outside the 400-419 band entirely—either significantly exceeding 419 posts if a major catalyst emerges, or staying below 400 if he prioritizes offline operations. This binary conviction reflects the market's view that the narrow target range is incompatible with Musk's historical volatility. The lack of middle-ground probability suggests traders expect polarized outcomes rather than measured, moderate posting activity during this specific week.
What are traders watching for?
May 12-15: Monitor Musk's daily tweet counts; if already above 420 by midweek, YES will be mathematically eliminated.
Tesla quarterly earnings, SpaceX announcements, or X feature launches during May 12-19 could spike posting volume above 419.
Regulatory developments, cryptocurrency volatility, or public controversies may trigger sustained bursts above 50 tweets daily.
Baseline behavior: 20-80 daily tweets typical; 50-52 daily average requires sustained activity well above his historical median.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on Elon Musk's verifiable tweet count on X from May 12 to May 19, 2026. YES wins if total tweets fall between 400-419 inclusive; NO wins for any other count. A public API archive or third-party tweet counter will be used to verify the final tally.
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