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This market resolves based on Elon Musk's publicly verifiable tweet count from May 22 to May 29, 2026 — an 8-day window during which he would need to post between 440 and 459 tweets to trigger a YES resolution. Currently priced at 0%, the market indicates near-universal trader conviction that his post volume will fall outside this narrow 20-tweet range during that specific week. To reach 440 tweets, Musk would need to maintain an average of 55 posts per day; to reach 459 would require approximately 57 posts daily — representing a medium-high posting frequency by his historical standards. The market's extreme bearishness suggests either confidence in a lower tweet volume for that period, or skepticism that his activity will land precisely in this band. For context, major news cycles or platform controversies often spike his daily post count well above these levels, while strategic silence periods can push his output significantly lower.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk acquired Twitter (rebranded as X) in October 2022 for approximately $44 billion, establishing direct control over his posting behavior and the platform's operational direction. Since taking ownership, his tweet activity has become a subject of intense scrutiny among both supporters and critics, with his posts regularly moving markets, influencing policy discussions, and driving global news cycles. His presence on the platform is distinctive: Musk frequently posts at irregular hours, sometimes engaging in lengthy threads, sometimes silent for periods, and occasionally deleting posts after publication. The volume of his tweets fluctuates significantly based on current events, product launches, personal interests, and platform developments. This particular market isolates a specific 8-day window (May 22–29, 2026) and asks whether his post volume will fall into the narrow 440–459 range — a band that assumes roughly 55–57 tweets per day. Several factors could theoretically push toward YES (higher tweet volume): major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, geopolitical events requiring his commentary, platform controversies demanding his direct intervention, or simply a period of unusual engagement with current news cycles. Conversely, numerous factors point toward NO: Musk's historical average posting rate may fall below this threshold, competing demands on his time from Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI could limit his availability, he might deliberately reduce social media activity during certain periods, or his typical volume might exceed rather than land within this specific band. The extremely narrow window of 440–459 tweets (a 20-tweet range) means that even a moderately higher or lower week pushes the market away from YES. Historically, Musk's posting patterns show high variance. In weeks with major company announcements or during heated public disputes, he has posted well above 100 tweets per day. In other periods, particularly during product development cycles or when strategic silence is preferred, his daily volume drops substantially. The precise range of 440–459 tweets — approximately 55–57 posts per day over 8 days — lands at what might be considered his medium-high posting frequency. The market's current 0% pricing reflects trader expectations that his actual volume will diverge meaningfully from this band. This could mean the market anticipates either significantly lower activity (perhaps 300–400 tweets for the week, averaging under 50 per day) or, less likely, significantly higher activity (500+ tweets, exceeding 62 per day). The extreme bearishness of this pricing suggests skepticism that Musk will fall into this particular range by chance.
What are traders watching for?
May 22-29 post count must hit exactly 440-459 range; resolved via X public API on May 29.
Major Tesla or SpaceX announcements during this week could push Elon toward higher tweet frequency.
His typical weekly output often exceeds 59 posts per day; hitting 55-57 daily average requires unusual restraint.
Market at 0% suggests traders expect either significantly lower activity or volume well above 459.
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves on May 29, 2026, based on Elon Musk's total tweet count from May 22–29, 2026, verified via X's public API. A resolution of YES requires his post count to fall between 440 and 459 tweets (inclusive); any count below 440 or above 459 triggers a NO resolution.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
