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Elon Musk's tweet volume has long been subject to prediction markets and trader speculation. The May 22-29 market isolates a specific week and a narrow range: 460-479 tweets, which would require approximately 57-60 tweets per day. At 0% implied probability, market participants are pricing this outcome as virtually impossible during that timeframe. This suggests Musk's expected activity for that week falls significantly outside this range—either well below or well above the 460-479 bracket. The 0% price reflects strong consensus among traders that this particular volume band will not occur. The market reflects baseline assumptions about his typical posting frequency, engagement patterns, and any anticipated events (company announcements, product launches, geopolitical developments) that might suppress or elevate his activity. With $56.9K in 24h volume, the market has sufficient liquidity for traders to hedge their views on his social media behavior during the week of May 22-29. The market closes May 29, with resolution determined by X's official tweet count.
What factors could move this market?
Understanding Elon Musk's tweet volume requires context about his social media habits and this market's specific scope. The 460-479 range represents a narrow band—for an 8-day week (May 22-29), that's roughly 57-60 tweets per day. The 0% price suggests traders believe Musk's activity will fall entirely outside this range, potentially manifesting in two ways: his volume could be significantly lower, reflecting periods where he focuses on company operations at Tesla or SpaceX rather than public communication; alternatively, it could be substantially higher, driven by major announcements, responses to significant news, product launches, or crisis management requiring immediate public engagement.
Historically, Musk's tweeting has been highly reactive and event-driven rather than maintaining steady baseline activity. Major Tesla earnings announcements, Starship development milestones, SpaceX achievements, Starlink rollouts, and political commentary regularly spike his engagement. Conversely, periods of intense operational focus—such as company restructuring, regulatory negotiations, or strategic pivots—often suppress his X presence as attention shifts offline.
The market's 0% price suggests traders expect May 22-29 to feature either notably suppressed or notably elevated activity. This could signal expectations about major events occurring during that week or reflect collective analysis that his baseline activity simply doesn't cluster around 460-479 tweets per week. Pricing this outcome at 0% represents strong trader conviction that Musk's behavior during this period will deviate meaningfully from this specific band. The $56.9K in 24h volume indicates meaningful interest from market participants. Resolution occurs May 29 via X's official or verifiable tweet count for Musk's account, creating objective clarity with no ambiguity.
What are traders watching for?
Watch for Tesla earnings, SpaceX Starship updates, or major product announcements May 22-29; these typically spike Musk's tweet frequency significantly.
Monitor X policy changes, platform incidents, or technical outages during the week; Musk often responds publicly to site-wide developments affecting users.
Track regulatory filings, political developments, or industry crises May 22-29; emergency response can dramatically elevate or suppress Musk's social activity.
Official tweet count resolves May 29; X will provide verifiable count for @elonmusk covering the May 22-29 period exactly.
Market closes at resolution deadline with no adjustments; traders must form conviction on his expected weekly tweet volume before May 29.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves May 29, 2026 based on official tweet count from Elon Musk's @elonmusk account during May 22-29. The YES outcome requires exactly 460-479 tweets in that period; any count above or below this range results in NO resolution.
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