Connect wallet to trade · No wallet? Passkey login available · Free alerts at /subscribe
Elon Musk's tweeting frequency has long been a subject of fascination among social media analysts and X watchers. This market specifically tracks whether he will post between 480 and 499 tweets during the eight-day period from May 19 to May 26, 2026—a threshold that would require roughly 60-62 tweets per day. The current market odds of 0% suggest traders are highly confident this outcome will not occur, reflecting either a belief that Musk's daily tweeting habits have settled below this range, or that upcoming events during this window (Tesla board meetings, SpaceX launches, or platform priorities) will suppress his activity. For context, this range sits at an elevated frequency level, representing sustained daily engagement. The market provides a quantifiable mechanism for tracking social media activity patterns, with odds shifting in real time as new data emerges. At 0%, the market is pricing near-certainty that he will tweet fewer than 480 or more than 499 messages that week.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's public X (formerly Twitter) presence remains one of the most closely watched social media activity streams globally. His tweeting patterns vary significantly based on business cycles, product launches, and personal interests. The 480-499 tweet range for May 19-26, 2026, represents a relatively high-frequency threshold—requiring roughly 60-62 posts per day across all eight days with no breaks. While this level of activity sits well within Musk's historical capacity (he has posted 100+ tweets during major announcement days), the consistency required to hit this specific range daily for a full week is more demanding.
Several factors could theoretically push toward YES and higher activity. A major Tesla or SpaceX announcement during this window could spike engagement. Starship launch preparations or Tesla earnings season could generate thread-based coverage. Disputes or notable developments on the X platform itself sometimes trigger extended posting patterns. However, the current 0% pricing suggests traders view these catalysts as unlikely during this precise window.
Factors pushing toward NO appear more dominant in market consensus. Mid-May represents a period where Musk's attention typically redirects toward engineering and operational focus rather than sustained social media engagement. Supply chain challenges at Tesla, production issues, or SpaceX operational demands often correlate with reduced public tweeting. Board meetings and governance activities across his various companies frequently suppress public-facing activity. Market participants may also be reflecting a longer-term trend of Musk moderating his daily post frequency compared to earlier years of his X platform dominance.
The 0% odds represent an extreme reading—suggesting not merely low conviction toward YES, but near-complete certainty toward NO. This typically reflects either fundamental improbability based on recent behavioral data, or strong selling pressure from high-conviction participants. Given the specificity of the 480-499 range and daily discipline required, traders appear confident that outcomes outside this narrow band (whether lower or higher) are virtually guaranteed.
What are traders watching for?
May 19-20: First 48 hours establish baseline pace for entire eight-day period
Tesla earnings or SpaceX launch announcements May 19-26 could spike daily post volume
May 26 end-of-window resolution uses official X/Twitter API verified data
Board meetings, operational crises, or travel during mid-May could suppress activity
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts between 480 and 499 tweets (inclusive) via X/Twitter during May 19-26, 2026, using official platform data. Resolves NO if total falls outside this range.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
