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Elon Musk's tweet volume prediction market on Polymarket gauges whether he will post 500 or more tweets during the eight-day window from May 19 to May 26, 2026. With current odds at 0%, the market implies extremely low probability of this outcome. Averaging 500 tweets over eight days would require approximately 62 tweets per day—a pace that historical data suggests is well above Musk's typical posting frequency for an extended period. As of May 24, only three days remain in the resolution window, and the 0% odds indicate traders believe the cumulative threshold will not be reached. The market has attracted $29.6K in 24-hour volume and $124K in total liquidity, reflecting active interest in tweet-count prediction markets. The low odds suggest traders expect Elon's posting activity during this specific week to remain below the 500-tweet threshold.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk's public Twitter activity has been a closely watched indicator of his attention allocation across his various companies—Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company, Neuralink, and his ownership stake in X (formerly Twitter). His tweeting frequency fluctuates significantly based on corporate events, product launches, regulatory developments, and personal engagement. A 500-tweet posting target over eight days represents sustained high-frequency output of approximately 62 tweets per day, a threshold historically reached only during extreme events or major corporate announcements. Most publicly available records suggest his typical daily tweet volume ranges from 2-20 tweets depending on the period, though event-driven windows can see temporary spikes. The May 19-26, 2026 window does not coincide with any known major Tesla shareholder meeting, SpaceX launch, or X product announcement, reducing exogenous catalysts that might elevate his posting frequency. The market's 0% odds indicate traders assess Musk's cumulative historical pattern and conclude that 500 tweets is an outlier threshold unlikely without a specific catalyst. Recent X policy changes and Musk's shifting management priorities away from day-to-day platform moderation have also potentially reduced his personal tweeting frequency relative to earlier periods. What would need to change for YES odds to rise? A major corporate crisis requiring active crisis communication, a viral tweet thread about a technical breakthrough, or a significant acquisition announcement could theoretically drive daily posting rates higher. Conversely, the current 0% odds reflect decisive market consensus: without an extraordinary catalyst, Musk will not sustain a 62-tweet-per-day pace during this week. The $124K in liquidity and $29.6K 24-hour volume suggest genuine trader interest in testing whether posting behavior is predictable via market mechanisms. With only days remaining until May 26 resolution, traders increasingly rely on concrete, recent data, leaving little room for volatility.
What are traders watching for?
May 26 resolution date: Market settles based on Elon's confirmed tweet count from May 19-26. Only three days remain in window as of May 24.
Daily posting pace: Requires 62+ tweets/day to reach 500. Historical records suggest Elon averages 2-20 tweets/day across normal periods.
Catalyst watch: Any major Tesla earnings, SpaceX announcement, or X policy change could elevate posting frequency, but none are scheduled this week.
Current odds at 0%: Market consensus overwhelmingly discounts this outcome. Resolution window nearly complete with measurable, recent data.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts 500 or more tweets during the May 19-26, 2026 window (inclusive), with count verified through public X platform records. Resolution occurs May 26, 2026 at 00:00 UTC.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
