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This market asks whether Elon Musk will post between 60 and 79 tweets during the week of May 22-29, 2026. The 0% YES odds indicate the market is highly confident this specific outcome will not occur. Musk is one of X's most active users, frequently posting multiple times per hour on topics spanning Tesla, SpaceX, AI, and industry commentary. Hitting 60-79 tweets in one week requires averaging 8-11 posts per day—well above his typical sustained output but within his historical capability during high-engagement periods. The market's extreme pricing suggests traders believe the May 22-29 window will fall during lower activity (major business meetings, travel, or strategic focus) or that Musk's posting will fall substantially outside this band, either much lower or above 80. The narrow range amplifies difficulty: missing by even one post in either direction results in NO. With $60K total liquidity, this market reflects moderate institutional interest in Musk's social media behavior.
What factors could move this market?
Elon Musk has established himself as one of X's most prolific and volatile accounts, with daily posting patterns ranging from single digits to 25+ tweets depending on business cycles, external events, and personal activity. To contextualize the 60-79 range across one week—averaging 8-11 posts per day—it's instructive to reference documented patterns. During high-pressure periods (Tesla earnings, SpaceX developments, AI announcements, or industry controversies), Musk has posted 20-30+ tweets in a single day. During business-focused or low-engagement phases, he might post only 3-5 times daily. The 60-79 range sits in the elevated-activity zone but is not his absolute maximum, making it a conditional outcome requiring sustained external catalysts and consistent engagement.
The market's current 0% pricing reflects near-total consensus that this outcome will not materialize. Several structural factors explain this extreme bearishness. First, the narrow band is unforgiving—hitting exactly 60-79 requires precision, with 59 tweets or 80+ tweets resulting in NO. Second, prediction market participants likely assess the May 22-29 window as falling during lower-activity business phases. Third, traders may simply price in skepticism that any arbitrary week hits this specific mid-to-high range, instead expecting either sustained silence or explosive engagement above 80.
Factors that could drive YES include: major Tesla announcements, significant SpaceX developments, regulatory filings on xAI, or Musk's reactions to industry disruptions. Factors driving NO include: shareholder meetings, international travel, deep business focus, or deliberate social media reduction. The 0% market odds price in an expectation that low-activity scenarios dominate the week or that his posting falls well outside this band. With $60K liquidity, the market reflects moderate institutional attention, though almost all capital concentrates on NO. Resolution is purely data-driven: official X post count for @elonmusk during May 22-29, 2026 determines the outcome with no interpretation required.
What are traders watching for?
Official X post count for @elonmusk May 22-29 determines resolution; off-by-one tweets result in NO.
Major Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI announcements during the week could trigger sustained posting toward YES.
Shareholder meetings, travel, or strategic business focus could suppress volume well below 60.
Market prices at 0% YES, implying traders expect weekly volume outside 60-79 range entirely.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on official X/Twitter post count for @elonmusk from May 22-29, 2026. YES wins if post count falls within 60-79 inclusive; all other counts resolve NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
