US gasoline is at 16% odds above $4.70 by May 31, with $928 24h volume and $6K liquidity. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
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US gasoline prices have hovered near $2.50–$3.50 per gallon through early 2026. A $4.70 mark represents a 60–90% jump from current levels and would signal a major supply shock or geopolitical disruption. The May 31 deadline gives five weeks for such a spike. At 16% implied odds, the market reflects broad skepticism about fuel reaching this threshold despite ongoing Middle East tensions, OPEC+ production decisions, and seasonal summer demand ramping. Historical precedent exists—May 2022 saw prices briefly touch $4.70 amid Russia's Ukraine invasion and supply fears. Current traders are pricing in either continued global supply sufficiency, demand softness, or a technical ceiling below $4.70. Odds could shift sharply on any major supply disruption or OPEC+ announcement in May. Resolution is straightforward: AAA historical data will determine if the national average weekly gas price reached $4.70 through May 31 midnight.
Gasoline prices are determined by crude oil (currently ~$70/bbl), US refinery capacity (operating near 85% utilization), geopolitical supply risks, and seasonal demand. The $4.70 level represents a 67% premium to current prices (~$2.82 national average) and matches the intraday peak reached in May 2022 during Russia's Ukraine invasion when markets feared immediate supply cuts of 3M bbl/day. That 2022 spike was driven by coordinated geopolitical fear and OPEC+ production decisions; today's backdrop differs substantially. Supporting a YES (gas to $4.70): A genuine Middle East escalation closing the Strait of Hormuz (17M bbl/day passes through annually) would immediately trigger a supply crisis. Recent Iran tensions and Houthi attacks on vessels in 2023–2024 showed how regional instability can ripple. Alternatively, OPEC+ could agree to deeper cuts in May, tightening global supply. Summer demand seasonally peaks in June–August, and if stimulus-fueled growth reaccelerates, energy needs could surge. Lastly, a major hurricane hitting the US Gulf Coast (hurricane season is June–November, but May poses low risk) could knock out refining capacity for weeks. Supporting a NO (gas stays below $4.70): Demand growth remains muted—US gasoline consumption is down 5–7% per capita versus 2019, driven by EVs and efficiency. Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns are complete, stabilizing supply. Crude futures are priced at $65–75/bbl through May, implying refined products well below $4.70. No oil majors are signaling supply stress, and OPEC+ has shown preference for gradual adjustments rather than shock production cuts. Importantly, $4.70 gas triggers demand destruction (commuters shift behavior, trucks stay idle), creating a natural ceiling—this very high price would choke off its own catalyst. Market liquidity at $6.7K and 16% odds tells us traders are skeptical of a shock scenario. A black-swan event remains possible, but is priced as a tail risk.
Market resolves YES if US national average gasoline price (per AAA weekly data) reaches $4.70 or higher at any point by May 31, 2026 midnight. Resolution uses AAA historical data; intraday or regional spikes qualify if the weekly average crosses the threshold.
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