This market tracks whether global temperature will rise between 1.15 and 1.19 degrees Celsius above a reference baseline during April 2026. Global temperature anomalies are measured by tracking deviations from historical averages, with April being a key month for annual climate monitoring. The current 48% odds suggest the prediction market sees this temperature range as roughly even-odds outcome, reflecting uncertainty in how seasonal warming will manifest across the globe in April. Temperature anomalies of this magnitude fall within the range of observed modern warming patterns. The resolution will depend on official global temperature data from climate authorities, typically published within weeks of month-end. Markets around temperature thresholds have historically shown steady interest as climate data becomes more accessible to traders and researchers. The specificity of the 1.15–1.19ºC band captures a narrow window within global warming trajectories, making this a technical prediction about climate metrics rather than extreme outcomes. Traders in such markets are typically focused on precise temperature readings from established datasets.