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Hassan Khomeini, grandson of Iran's Islamic Republic founder, has long been discussed as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei, now 87 years old, has led Iran since 1989 with no public indication he plans to step down before 2026. For Hassan to become head of state in the next seven months, Khamenei would need to die, resign, or Iran would require a constitutional upheaval—all extremely unlikely scenarios. The market's 1% YES odds reflect strong consensus among traders that succession is not imminent. The Islamic Republic's constitution establishes succession through the Assembly of Experts, a council of senior clerics. Hassan Khomeini, while politically connected through his grandfather's revolutionary legacy and occasionally vocal on religious matters, holds no formal state position. Recent political patterns show Khamenei continues consolidating influence through trusted allies and security institutions rather than preparing formal succession mechanisms. The current market price signals traders estimate near-certainty that Khamenei will retain the role through 2026.
What factors could move this market?
Hassan Khomeini's positioning as a potential successor stems from his family legacy as the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who founded the Islamic Republic in 1979. However, the formal succession structure in Iran operates through constitutional mechanisms, not heredity. The Assembly of Experts—composed of roughly 88 senior Islamic scholars—holds the constitutional authority to select and remove the Supreme Leader. This body includes both hardliners and more moderate clerics, making succession outcomes unpredictable if a vacancy actually occurs. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader since 1989, maintains firm control over the military, judiciary, and state media through a network of loyalists and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. At 87, Khamenei has experienced health setbacks in past years, but has shown no signs of formal succession planning or public recognition of a designated heir. Hassan Khomeini has maintained a lower political profile than his elder relatives, occasionally commenting on religious and social matters but avoiding direct challenges to Khamenei's authority. His potential claim to leadership would rest largely on his family name and legacy, not on institutional power bases. Recent years have seen Khamenei instead favor younger, ideologically aligned figures from within the security and judiciary establishments. The 1% market odds reflect several converging assessments: first, Khamenei's position remains firmly entrenched; second, even if succession became necessary, the Assembly of Experts would likely select from established power players rather than Hassan Khomeini; third, Hassan lacks the institutional coalition that would be needed to secure a succession outcome. Geopolitical factors—including Iran's regional tensions and economic pressures—have not visibly accelerated succession discussions. The compressed seven-month timeframe further reduces any realistic probability of a leadership transition. Markets with such extreme odds signal that traders see the YES scenario as dependent on unexpected, high-impact events with vanishingly small chances of occurring within the resolution window.
What are traders watching for?
Ayatollah Khamenei's public health status or any unannounced prolonged absence from state duties
Formal statements or resolutions from the Assembly of Experts regarding succession processes or timelines
Hassan Khomeini's political activities, public statements, or institutional appointments that would signal a succession pathway
Major domestic political upheavals, constitutional amendments, or security crises that could force leadership transitions
Official announcements of Khamenei's retirement or constitutional mechanism initiation for Supreme Leader succession
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if Hassan Khomeini is officially recognized and confirmed as Iran's Supreme Leader by 2026-12-31. Resolves NO if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or any other individual holds the position at year-end 2026.
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