The US inflation rate has been a primary concern for Federal Reserve policy and economic forecasting throughout 2025-2026. This prediction market asks whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will exceed 5% on a year-over-year basis during 2026. Such a level would represent a significant acceleration from the Federal Reserve's target of approximately 2% annual inflation. The current YES odds of 19% indicate that market participants expect inflation to remain below the 5% threshold in 2026, reflecting confidence in monetary policy effectiveness and moderate economic growth expectations. However, the non-trivial probability acknowledges potential upside risks including energy supply disruptions, geopolitical shocks, or unexpected wage-driven demand. Official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released monthly, will determine resolution. The market has accumulated $1,307 in 24-hour volume with $33,716 in total liquidity, providing traders ample opportunity to adjust positions as new economic data emerges throughout 2026.