Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have been tense amid broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and ongoing regional conflicts. The question of potential Iranian military action against Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026, hinges on several critical geopolitical factors including tensions in the region, international diplomatic efforts, and the broader context of Middle Eastern security dynamics. The market currently prices YES odds at 3%, reflecting participant consensus that direct Iranian military strikes against Azerbaijan remain unlikely within this remaining timeframe. This low probability estimate suggests traders believe that either diplomatic channels will successfully reduce tensions, the regional situation will remain stable without major escalation, or any serious military confrontation would extend beyond the April 30 deadline. The market will resolve based on verified public reports of Iranian military strikes targeting Azerbaijani territory during the specified period. Volume of $4,369 and $15,944 in liquidity indicate moderate but meaningful market participation in this geopolitical outcome. Recent odds movements have remained relatively stable, suggesting participant confidence in the low-strike scenario, though geopolitical markets remain inherently vulnerable to rapid news-driven repricing given the unpredictable nature of international relations.