This market tracks whether Iran will conduct a military strike against France by April 30, 2026. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Western nations form the backdrop for this prediction market. The market is binary: it resolves YES if Iran launches a confirmed military strike, whether kinetic or cyber-based, on French territory or official assets before the deadline, and NO otherwise. Currently trading at just 1 percent probability for a YES outcome, the market reflects the assessed extremely low likelihood of direct Iranian military action against France within this timeframe. This low price suggests that traders view such an escalation to direct confrontation between Iran and a NATO member as highly improbable given current geopolitical conditions and the significant strategic costs Iran would incur. The odds have remained relatively stable throughout the period, indicating consistent market assessment of the geopolitical risk. Historical precedent suggests lower probability for direct state-on-state military action between Iran and Western powers. Resolution will depend on credible reporting from established news sources confirming a direct military strike attributed to Iranian forces on French territory or French government official confirmation of such an attack.