Jerome Powell has served as the 16th Chairman of the Federal Reserve since February 2018. This market asks whether Powell will depart from his position as Fed Chair specifically between May 30 and June 5, 2026. Powell's tenure has been marked by significant policy shifts, including rapid interest rate increases to combat inflation and subsequent stability measures. Federal Reserve leadership changes are rare and typically occur only at the end of a chair's four-year term, through retirement, or in extraordinary circumstances. The market currently prices a 12% probability of Powell's departure during this narrow five-day window, suggesting traders view an unscheduled exit as unlikely but not impossible. Such an event would require either a sudden resignation or an unexpected removal from office. The current YES pricing reflects the base-case assumption that Powell remains in his role through and beyond this specific week in late May. The implied probability distribution suggests market participants expect Powell's tenure to either continue through his current term or face any potential changes outside this particular window. Market activity and price movements may shift in response to economic data, political developments, or official statements regarding Fed leadership.