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South Korea's 2026 Ulsan mayoral election represents a significant test in the country's regional political landscape. Ulsan, as a major industrial and port hub connected to automotive and shipping sectors, has historically been a competitive battleground between conservative and progressive political factions. The prediction market currently prices Kim Doo-kyum's chances at 43% YES odds, indicating traders view the race as genuinely contested rather than a runaway or impossible race. This probability reflects an assessment that while Kim Doo-kyum has a credible path to victory, the race remains fluid with competing candidates maintaining substantial support. The 43% valuation suggests neither clear frontrunner status nor dismissal as a long-shot candidate, positioning him squarely in the contested-race range. Over the weeks leading to the June 3 election date, odds may fluctuate based on campaign developments, polling data releases, endorsements, and regional political shifts. The relatively tight liquidity ($3,390) and 24-hour volume ($2,356) indicate moderate market engagement, typical for subnational elections in developed democracies where prediction markets track secondary political contests and regional power struggles.
What factors could move this market?
Ulsan Metropolitan City is South Korea's ninth-largest city by population and a cornerstone of the nation's industrial economy, home to major Hyundai automotive facilities, petrochemical complexes, and the world's largest shipbuilding yards. The city's political identity has traditionally oscillated between conservative and progressive camps, reflecting both its industrial working-class heritage and its role as a strategic economic zone where national industrial policy carries outsized weight. Regional employment, industrial policy, environmental protection, and port development dominate local electoral discourse. Kim Doo-kyum enters the 2026 mayoral race with a 43% probability according to the prediction market, positioned neither as a frontrunner nor an underdog, but rather as a candidate whose viability depends heavily on the specific composition and consolidation of opposition support. Several factors could drive his odds higher: consolidation of conservative or progressive votes behind a single candidate, strong performance in late-stage polling, high-profile endorsements from national party figures, superior ground organization, effective campaign messaging on Ulsan-specific issues like port expansion and industrial employment, or favorable local news coverage. Conversely, fragmentation of the candidate field could harm him if supporters split their votes with another candidate of similar ideology, or if a stronger regional political figure enters the race late and consolidates anti-Kim voting blocs. Polling momentum carries enormous weight in Korean municipal elections, where voters often break toward front-runners in the final weeks before voting as undecided voters make final choices. Historical precedent from Ulsan's prior mayoral contests shows that candidates polling in the 40-45% range typically finish competitively, with final outcomes determined by turnout patterns, regional mobilization, and campaign surprises. The 43% current odds imply traders believe Kim Doo-kyum has genuine claim to victory but faces meaningful headwinds from opposing candidates and uncertain campaign dynamics. The market's modest liquidity suggests this race lacks the intense speculative interest of national-level Korean elections, making odds movements more sensitive to new information and sentiment shifts.
What are traders watching for?
Election day June 3, 2026 — final vote count determines winner via official Ulsan election commission tallies and verification.
Final polling releases in late May — late-stage surveys often show voter consolidation toward top candidates in final weeks.
Major party endorsements or national politician campaigning in Ulsan — high-profile backing can shift regional momentum.
Competing candidate field dynamics — withdrawals or consolidations significantly affect Kim Doo-kyum's victory pathway.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Kim Doo-kyum wins the June 3, 2026 Ulsan mayoral election as determined by official Ulsan election commission results. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
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