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Lucy Powell is a long-serving Conservative MP and former Shadow Chancellor, though she is not currently positioned in the direct line of succession to become Prime Minister by the end of 2026. The 0% prediction market odds reflects trader consensus that her pathway to Number 10 is essentially closed within this calendar year. As of mid-2026, the UK political landscape is shaped either by the continuation of the current Conservative government or by a potential Labour electoral breakthrough in the near term. The market prices in the critical assumption that Powell would require an extraordinary combination of simultaneous events—an unexpected party leadership crisis, significant electoral shocks, internal Conservative chaos, novel coalition dynamics, or other unprecedented political upheaval—to emerge as a credible contender for Prime Minister within the remaining months of 2026. Her standing within the Conservative Party is respected, but she is not positioned as leadership-track material under current circumstances. The party's established succession mechanisms and internal political hierarchies would need dramatic structural transformation for her to credibly emerge as a serious prime ministerial candidate before the market's December 31, 2026 expiration date.
What factors could move this market?
Lucy Powell has held various parliamentary roles and briefly served as Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, giving her experience in high-profile opposition positions. However, becoming Prime Minister in 2026 would require an unprecedented sequence of political events that traders view as essentially implausible within the remaining calendar year. The 0% odds suggest the market has effectively ruled out any plausible scenario. For Powell to reach Number 10 by December 31, 2026, multiple simultaneous developments would be required: the current Prime Minister would need to resign or face removal, the Conservative Party would need to hold a competitive leadership election or engage in coalition negotiations, and Powell would need to prevail over other potential contenders. This combination is viewed as so improbable that the market assigns it no measurable likelihood. Even under scenario-planning frameworks considering unexpected political instability, Powell is not mentioned as a serious contingency candidate. The broader political context shapes the assessment significantly. If the Conservative Party faces electoral defeat and triggers a major leadership contest, the party would likely consider candidates with executive prominence or fresh energy in public polling. Powell's profile—as a respected but not dominant figure in recent Conservative politics—does not position her as an obvious choice. Labour figures or other Conservatives with higher visibility would typically be considered first. UK Prime Ministers historically emerge from positions of clear party prominence or through established succession planning, neither of which applies to Powell in 2026. Recent political developments show Powell in various legislative roles but not building a visible campaign for higher office. The party's internal dynamics and media coverage would typically surface signals if a mid-ranking MP were mounting serious prime ministerial ambitions. The absence of such signals, combined with the crowded field of other Conservative figures, explains the zero odds. Trading volume of $23,663 over 24 hours reflects modest interest consistent with a settled market: Powell's odds are priced at the floor.
What are traders watching for?
Conservative Party leadership election or unexpected Prime Minister departure forcing an open succession race within the party
Labour electoral victory triggering a major Conservative leadership contest where Powell could emerge as a possible candidate
Coalition negotiations following inconclusive election results that could elevate Powell into contention for the Prime Minister role
Major media coverage or public polling showing Powell as a serious contender for party leadership by autumn 2026
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if Lucy Powell becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
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