Mark Brnovich, the former Arizona Attorney General who served from 2015 to 2023, is campaigning in the Republican primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. This central Arizona district is considered a swing seat, spanning portions of Phoenix and surrounding communities. The market resolves on August 4, 2026, based on the official results of the Arizona Republican primary election. With YES odds currently trading at just 1%, the market is pricing in a very low probability that Brnovich will secure the Republican nomination. For Brnovich to win the nomination, he would need to overcome competing candidates in what is likely a crowded primary field. The minimal odds suggest that traders view other candidates as stronger contenders or better positioned to win the party's nomination in AZ-01. The outcome will depend on multiple factors including voter turnout, campaign effectiveness, fundraising capacity, and support from party leaders and influential endorsers. The resolution is straightforward and verifiable: the candidate who wins the largest share of Republican primary votes on election day becomes the official party nominee for the general election in November.