The 2026 PGA Championship, golf's second major of the year, concludes on May 18, 2026. Matt Fitzpatrick, a 28-year-old British golfer who won the 2022 US Open, entered the championship with experience as a former major champion. However, the prediction market has assigned him virtually zero probability of winning, indicating that traders believe he will not finish atop the final leaderboard. This decisive market pricing reflects either poor performance across the 72-hole tournament, a missed cut, or elimination from contention. The PGA Championship's format—four days of stroke play with traditional scoring—produces a fully resolvable outcome by the tournament's close. Fitzpatrick's 0% odds represent high confidence among market participants that he is not in the running for the trophy. The market pricing suggests his 2026 week did not meet the level required to win one of golf's most competitive majors.
What factors could move this market?
Matt Fitzpatrick has positioned himself as one of Europe's elite professional golfers, with his 2022 US Open victory at Brookline representing a career-defining major-championship breakthrough. Now 28 years old, Fitzpatrick brought proven experience and technical skill to the 2026 PGA Championship, yet the prediction market's near-zero odds reflect his actual tournament outcome. The reasons for his elimination could range from struggling during the early rounds—leaving him too far back to contend—to missing the cut entirely and being unable to compete on the weekend. Golf majors are uniquely demanding tests that require not just raw talent but mental resilience, consistency, and course management over 72 grueling holes. Fitzpatrick's previous major success proved he possesses these qualities, yet the 2026 PGA Championship produced a different result. Historically, major championships are difficult to win in rapid succession; even elite players often struggle to return to victory when majors are spaced weeks apart. The PGA Championship field is exceptionally strong, attracting the world's top-ranked golfers competing for one of golf's four most prestigious trophies. The market's 0% probability reflects trader conviction that Fitzpatrick was not among the final contenders. This outcome could stem from course fit—certain majors suit particular playing styles better than others—or from form fluctuations that affect even proven champions. The low trading volume relative to his odds suggests skepticism about Fitzpatrick's chances began before the tournament started and was reinforced by his actual performance. In prediction markets, 0% odds typically signal near-certainty that an outcome will not occur, especially as a tournament concludes. Fitzpatrick's major-championship pedigree and European Tour success indicate he will have future opportunities to win majors, but the 2026 PGA Championship appears to have belonged to a different champion who performed at a higher level during these critical four days.
What are traders watching for?
Tournament ends May 18, 2026—PGA Championship final leaderboard determines the outright winner
Matt Fitzpatrick's actual tournament finish and total score across 72 holes
Early-round performance shapes contention window; missed cut eliminates him from weekend play
Field strength and scoring conditions throughout the championship determine winning score
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Matt Fitzpatrick finishes as the outright winner of the 2026 PGA Championship on May 18, 2026. If he does not win, it resolves NO.
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