Matteo Berrettini 2026: 2% to Win Wimbledon — Live Odds

Matteo Berrettini, the 28-year-old Italian ATP player, holds just a 2% market-implied probability to win the 2026 Wimbledon Championships, reflecting his status as a substantial underdog in the prediction markets. Berrettini's career has been marked by inconsistency across surfaces, though he demonstrated competence on grass courts and reached the 2021 Wimbledon final. At 2% odds, the market is pricing in significant skepticism about his chances against the field of elite players expected to compete. The current pricing suggests traders view Berrettini as unlikely to navigate a grueling seven-match tournament run on grass against top-seeded players and rising talent. His injury history and age relative to younger competitors factor into the low probability assignment. The $4,144 in 24-hour volume indicates moderate interest in this contract, with resolution tied to Wimbledon's conclusion on July 12, 2026. Any movement toward higher percentages would suggest either a change in trader sentiment or a reduction in the field size as the tournament approaches.

What factors could move this market?

Matteo Berrettini emerged as a prominent ATP figure between 2019 and 2021, a period during which he reached the Wimbledon final in 2021 and climbed to a career-high ranking of world No. 6. His game has always featured a powerful serve and aggressive baseline play, characteristics suited to faster courts and particularly grass surfaces where his natural playing style finds traction. However, Berrettini has struggled with consistency and injury setbacks since his peak years. A succession of injuries, including elbow and shoulder issues, have limited his playing schedule and competitive sharpness in recent seasons. Leading into the grass season, traders appear to be pricing in a player who is no longer reliably competing at his former peak level. Factors that could push the market toward YES include a favorable seeding or draw that avoids top-10 players until deeper rounds, injury-forced withdrawals by other contenders, a remarkable grass-court preparation season that restores his confidence, and momentum from wins on the grass warm-up circuit in June. His prior Wimbledon final appearance demonstrates he possesses the tactical and technical skills to make a long run. If Berrettini plays at 2019-2020 form levels, he becomes a dangerous unseeded or mid-seeded threat in the draw. Conversely, factors pointing toward NO dominate the outlook. Wimbledon 2026 will feature the world's best grass-court players in peak condition, including likely favorites from the top rankings who have invested their seasons around grass preparation. The field includes younger, hungry players like Jannik Sinner, who have surpassed Berrettini in recent rankings. His injury history raises questions about whether he can sustain the physical demands of a seven-match tournament without breakdown. Aging slightly from his peak, he may lack the explosiveness and stamina he possessed five years ago. Recent tournament history shows that even legendary grass-court specialists have suffered shocking early exits when form dips. The 2% odds reflect deep skepticism about Berrettini's likelihood of winning the title outright. The market is essentially saying that even accounting for the small possibility that circumstances align in his favor, the base case is that he will lose to one of the many players ranked above or below him who bring superior current form or trajectory. The modest $4K 24h volume suggests traders are not aggressively betting on a surprise Berrettini victory, indicating low collective conviction that he will outrun the field.

What are traders watching for?

• Monitor Berrettini's ATP grass-court performance in June warm-up tournaments; strong wins would indicate genuine form entering Wimbledon.
• Watch the final seeding announcement; early-round matchups against top seeds would eliminate his path, while favorable positioning creates opportunity.
• Track injury reports on Berrettini; shoulder, elbow, or major physical issues would signal reduced tournament viability.
• Monitor rival withdrawals and injuries; unexpected absences from top contenders would mathematically increase Berrettini's winning odds.

How does this market resolve?

The market resolves on July 12, 2026, following the conclusion of the Wimbledon Championships. Resolution: YES if Berrettini wins the men's singles title; NO if any other player wins the tournament.