Matteo Berrettini 2026 US Open: 0% Win — Live Odds

Matteo Berrettini's market odds have collapsed to 0% for winning the 2026 US Open, a stark reflection of his current status in professional tennis. The Italian player, once ranked in the top 10, has battled significant injuries in recent years that have impacted both his ATP ranking and competitive consistency on the tour. The US Open in particular draws the world's elite players, and the tournament's best-of-five-set format favors players in peak physical condition—a position Berrettini is not currently at, according to market participants. A 0% price doesn't necessarily mean zero theoretical chance; Grand Slam tournaments are notoriously unpredictable, and injuries and withdrawals can open paths for lower seeds. However, the market consensus of 0% reflects the broad trader view that Berrettini's current form, fitness level, and likely seeding make a path to the title virtually impossible. The market will resolve on September 13 when the US Open concludes.

What factors could move this market?

Matteo Berrettini is a 28-year-old Italian tennis player who achieved career-high ATP rankings in the top 10 and reached Grand Slam finals before—most notably the 2019 Wimbledon men's final, where he came close to winning his first major. However, his career trajectory has been significantly impacted by persistent injuries, particularly shoulder problems and other physical ailments, which have resulted in multiple withdrawals and extended absences from the tour over several years. These physical setbacks have caused his ATP ranking to slip considerably from its peak, and his recent tournament results have not demonstrated the form or consistency required to compete at the highest levels of Grand Slam tennis. His serve, once a major weapon, has been less dominant as a result of injury-related changes to his game. The 2026 US Open represents one of professional tennis's most challenging tournaments for several interconnected reasons. The draw attracts the world's top players across all abilities, with seeded contenders occupying primary sections. The hard court surface at Flushing Meadows suits fast, aggressive baseline players, and the tournament's best-of-five-set format demands exceptional physical stamina and shot-making consistency. A player returning from chronic injury would face an extremely difficult path against well-seeded contenders in peak physical condition. The tournament takes place in early September, giving Berrettini less than four months from mid-May to achieve competitive fitness and form—a compressed timeline for a player managing long-term physical issues. For Berrettini to win the US Open, several scenarios would need to align: full recovery to tournament fitness, a manageable draw path with fewer top seeds in his half, and a return to the peak form he displayed in 2018–2019. Grand Slam tournaments are inherently unpredictable; injuries and upsets can create pathways for lower-seeded players. A quarterfinal appearance would be noteworthy given current expectations; a championship would demand extraordinary recovery, draw luck, and tournament upsets. The 0% market price reflects overwhelming trader consensus that these conditions are too unlikely to assign meaningful probability. The $146K daily volume shows monitoring interest, though modest liquidity ($4,194) indicates limited two-way trading. This likely reflects genuine collective assessment of Berrettini's extremely long odds given current form, injury status, and tournament difficulty.

What are traders watching for?

• US Open seeding announced in June; watch whether Berrettini is seeded, qualifies, or enters as wildcard.
• Track his ATP ranking and tournament results from May through August to assess fitness recovery and form trajectory.
• Monitor team announcements and injury reports—shoulder health is the critical gate for any title run.
• Favorable draw luck (fewer top-5 seeds in his half) would be essential to a deep tournament run.

How does this market resolve?

The market resolves on September 13, 2026, the conclusion of the US Open men's singles tournament. The market settles YES if Matteo Berrettini wins the championship title; NO if any other player wins.