Maxx Crosby shows 0% market-implied probability of playing for the Chicago Bears next, with $283K 24h volume and resolution Sept 1, 2026. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
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Maxx Crosby, the Las Vegas Raiders' elite defensive end, shows 0% market-implied probability of playing for the Chicago Bears by September 1, 2026. This market captures investor sentiment on whether Crosby's next team would be Chicago, a proposition the market deems extraordinarily unlikely. Crosby is under contract with the Raiders through 2027 under favorable terms, and recent Raiders management statements indicate he remains central to their defensive strategy. The 0% odds reflect both his contractual status and the prohibitive cost of acquiring an elite pass rusher in his prime. With $283K in 24-hour volume, traders are expressing near-absolute conviction that a Bears trade will not materialize within this five-month timeframe.
Maxx Crosby has established himself as one of the NFL's premier edge rushers since being drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders in 2019. He recorded 12.5 sacks in 2024 and has maintained elite-level production across his career, making him one of the league's most valuable defensive assets under 26 years old. His current contract with Las Vegas runs through 2027 with reasonable cap hits in the near term, giving the Raiders every financial and strategic incentive to retain him. The organization has consistently reaffirmed its commitment to building around Crosby as a cornerstone defensive player. The 0% market probability for a Bears trade reflects several fundamental obstacles that make such a scenario nearly inconceivable. First, Crosby's trade value is astronomical—acquiring an elite 25-year-old edge rusher would require Chicago to surrender multiple first-round draft picks at minimum, a cost almost no NFL team would justify mid-contract or mid-year. Second, the Raiders have invested heavily in Crosby and have no organizational incentive to trade a young, cost-controlled star player entering his prime. Third, Chicago's 2026 roster construction and salary cap situation make a marquee defensive end acquisition impractical. Historically, edge rusher trades are exceedingly rare in the NFL and typically involve aging veterans—not elite, young All-Pro candidates. The market's near-zero odds reflect trader consensus that while theoretically possible, a Crosby-to-Bears trade is practically impossible within the five-month window to September 1, 2026. Any such move would require either severe Raiders financial distress, catastrophic organizational decision reversal, or unforeseen circumstances—none of which current information suggests is probable.
The market resolves YES if Maxx Crosby is rostered by the Chicago Bears as of September 1, 2026; NO if he remains with Las Vegas or plays elsewhere. Resolution uses official NFL roster information at the start of the 2026 season.
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