Maxx Crosby to Vikings: 0% Probability — Live Odds

Maxx Crosby is a star defensive end currently locked into a multi-year contract extension with the Las Vegas Raiders, making an immediate move to Minnesota highly unlikely. The market's 0% probability reflects the structural impossibility of a trade or free-agent signing before the September 2026 resolution date. Crosby remains one of the Raiders' cornerstone defensive players with several years remaining on his deal. The Minnesota Vikings, while constantly seeking defensive upgrades, have shown no indication of pursuing Crosby or having the capital to acquire him. A Vikings acquisition would require either an extraordinarily expensive trade that Las Vegas categorically refuses, or Crosby hitting free agency years from now. The complete absence of any credible separation rumors, combined with Crosby's locked contract status and the Raiders' unwillingness to trade him, means traders see zero realistic path to this outcome before the deadline.

What factors could move this market?

Maxx Crosby emerged as one of the NFL's premier pass rushers during his time with the Las Vegas Raiders, earning Pro Bowl honors and establishing himself as a franchise cornerstone. In 2024, the Raiders extended Crosby through the 2028 season, signaling their long-term commitment and effectively removing him from the trade market for the foreseeable future. The contract includes substantial guaranteed money that makes a mid-cycle trade economically illogical for Las Vegas, which invested heavily to keep him in silver and black. The Minnesota Vikings, while perennially active in pursuit of defensive talent, operate under salary cap constraints that would make acquiring Crosby before September 2026 prohibitively expensive. They would need to sacrifice multiple draft picks and absorb a massive cap hit—an unrealistic scenario given the Vikings' other roster needs at quarterback and secondary. Historical precedent shows elite pass rushers rarely change teams mid-contract unless serious locker-room dysfunction exists, and no such evidence surrounds Crosby in Las Vegas. The Raiders have built their defense around his production, and defensive coordinator changes would not trigger a trade. Additionally, Crosby has not expressed any desire to leave, nor has any credible reporting linked him to Minnesota. The September 2026 resolution date falls before any potential free agency window, making this market a near-pure certainty trade. No playoff runs, cap crises, or organizational overhauls appear on the horizon that would force the Raiders' hand. The market's 0% probability accurately reflects the mathematical improbability of this transfer occurring within the specified timeframe.

What are traders watching for?

• Maxx Crosby's Raiders contract runs through 2028 with substantial guaranteed money remaining.
• NFL trade deadline is late March 2026; no Crosby-to-Vikings rumors have surfaced.
• Minnesota Vikings' cap space and draft capital insufficient for Crosby acquisition.
• Las Vegas has no incentive to trade a franchise defensive cornerstone mid-contract.

How does this market resolve?

Market resolves YES if Maxx Crosby officially signs with, is traded to, or joins the Minnesota Vikings on or before September 1, 2026. Resolves NO if he remains with the Raiders or signs with any other NFL team by that date.