Michael's 4th weekend box office presents a near-resolved prediction market closing May 18, 2026. The 0% current odds on the $19-22 million band reflect striking trader consensus: the film's performance will fall decisively outside this range. By the fourth weekend, theatrical releases settle into predictable decline patterns, with grosses typically 50-75% below opening weekend figures. The specificity of this range suggests traders view it as statistically unlikely given typical box office mathematics and Michael's observed trajectory through three prior weekends. With 21 days of historical performance to analyze, week four's outcome becomes largely mathematical extrapolation. Current market consensus appears split between two scenarios: either Michael substantially outperforms typical declines and exceeds $22M, or it follows standard holdover patterns and falls below $19M.
What factors could move this market?
Michael's 4th weekend outcome illustrates how prediction markets quantify diminishing uncertainty as events near resolution. The 0% odds on the $19-22 million band reveal trader conviction that this specific range is statistically implausible given three weeks of observed box office data. Most theatrical releases follow predictable mathematical patterns: opening weekends capture maximum revenue from accumulated demand and core audiences, while subsequent weekends contract as the addressable population shrinks and competing releases arrive. Typical week-to-week hold percentages range from 60-75% for strong performers with exceptional word-of-mouth to 40-55% for front-loaded properties. By the fourth weekend, cumulative mathematical compounding of these holds produces a tightly constrained predictable range. The decision to trade on a narrow $3-million band reflects near-complete resolution of uncertainty by mid-May. Traders have witnessed three full weekends of actual box office data, which heavily constrains week-four predictions through mathematical extrapolation rather than speculation. The price action—0% odds on YES—indicates decisive trader consensus: either Michael substantially exceeds expectations or performs to standard decline curves. The absence of significant probability on the middle band reflects the market's assessment that this range is statistically unlikely. Historical patterns support this bimodal distribution: independent films and character dramas typically see steeper 4th-weekend declines, clustering below $19M, while ensemble casts and franchise entries often exceed $22M. The probability distribution concentrates at extremes, not in the middle. For traders evaluating this market in its final days, the key insight is that twenty-one days of actual performance data make prediction primarily a mathematical exercise in extrapolation. Extrapolating observed hold rates from weeks one through three to predict week four leaves minimal probability mass in the $19-22M band—a market expectation the current odds validate completely.
What are traders watching for?
May 16-18 weekend box office reported May 19; market resolves within 24 hours of close.
Competing releases and screen allocation during this specific weekend determine holdover potential.
Week-to-week hold percentages from weeks 1-3 mathematically constrain week-4 outcome range.
Strong word-of-mouth and repeat-viewing behavior determine if Michael holds above $22M or declines below $19M.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves on Michael's actual 4th weekend (May 16-18, 2026) domestic box office total, confirmed via industry tracking. YES wins if total falls between $19-22 million; NO wins if outside this range.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
