Russia's next parliamentary election is scheduled for September 2026, where 450 seats in the State Duma will be contested. New People is a centrist political party that has gained some visibility in Russian politics in recent years, positioning itself as an alternative to more established parties. The current market odds of 2% for New People winning the most seats reflect the market's assessment that this outcome remains a low-probability event. Historically, power in Russian parliamentary elections has been heavily concentrated among established parties with significant state backing and organizational infrastructure. The 2% price point implies traders expect United Russia or other long-standing parliamentary parties to retain dominance in seat allocation. The market has maintained relatively stable pricing over recent months, with the low odds reflecting persistent skepticism about New People's ability to mobilize a nationwide majority. This prediction market allows participants to trade their expectations about the composition of the Russian parliament and the relative performance of major political parties through the September 2026 election deadline.